行业周报：新房二手房成交面积环比增长，北京进一步优化调整住房限购政策-20251228

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the transaction area of new and second-hand homes has increased month-on-month, while year-on-year figures show a decline. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized policies to stabilize the real estate market [3][4][61] - The overall direction of the real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with potential for slight fluctuations in housing prices during this process. The report anticipates further stabilization of the market due to supportive fiscal and monetary policies [3][4][61] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focused on winning the battle to ensure housing delivery, with 38 cities initiating self-renovation of old housing. Policies are being implemented to increase the supply of affordable housing and improve the quality of property services [4][12][14] - In Beijing, the social security requirement for non-local buyers to purchase homes has been reduced, and families with two children are allowed to buy multiple properties [4][12][14] Sales Performance - In the 52nd week of 2025, the transaction area of residential properties in 68 major cities reached 3.1 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 8% but a year-on-year decline of 39%. Cumulatively, the transaction area for the year is 118.7 million square meters, down 19% year-on-year [5][17][36] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 cities was 198,000 square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 23% but a month-on-month increase [36] Investment Trends - In the 52nd week of 2025, the total planned land area released in 100 major cities was 1.907 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 8.172 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The average transaction premium rate was 1.2% [42][44] - The transaction area for land in first-tier cities decreased by 33% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a 36% decline. However, third-tier cities experienced a 5% increase in land transaction area [42][44] Financing Conditions - The issuance of domestic credit bonds decreased by 1% month-on-month, totaling 4.29 billion yuan, with an average weighted interest rate of 2.23%, down 16 basis points [6][49][51] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds for the year is 406.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1% [49][54] Market Performance - The real estate index increased by 1.91% in the week of December 22-26, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.95% [56][59] - The report identifies top-performing real estate stocks, including Hualian Holdings and Shoukai Shares, while also noting underperformers like Shijie Holdings [59][60]