样本城市周度高频数据全追踪：二手房网签面积同比降幅较11月全月扩大-20251228

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the year-on-year net signed area for second-hand homes, with a decrease of 30% compared to the previous year, which is an expansion of 15 percentage points from November [4]. - In contrast, the year-on-year decline in the net signed area for new homes has narrowed to 26%, improving by 9 percentage points from November [4]. - The central economic work conference has shifted its focus from "greater efforts to stabilize the real estate market" to "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market," suggesting potential support for urban renewal and housing fund reforms [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the difference between net rental yields and mortgage rates as a key observation for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets [6]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - The year-on-year decline in new home net signed area has narrowed, with the average area signed in sample cities showing improvement compared to the past four years [10][11]. - The report indicates that the new home market is experiencing a more favorable supply-demand environment compared to the second-hand market [6]. Second-Hand Home Market - The year-on-year decline in second-hand home net signed area has expanded, with the average area signed in sample cities remaining at a relatively high level compared to the last five years [15][18]. - The report notes that the average viewing numbers for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities have decreased year-on-year, indicating a potential slowdown in market activity [43]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to November has seen a year-on-year decline of 14%, with the average transaction price showing a narrower increase of 7% [22]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of unsold land parcels, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [33]. Market Liquidity - The report assesses liquidity indicators, noting a tightening in macro-level liquidity in December, which may impact market conditions [47]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has decreased slightly, indicating a cautious market sentiment [48]. Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates an increase in the unsold inventory of new homes, with the de-stocking cycle lengthening compared to October [33]. - The report also highlights that the de-stocking cycles for first and second-tier cities have increased, suggesting a potential slowdown in sales [33].