集运指数（欧线）观点：近月震荡，远月关注加沙谈判进展-20251228

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - term outlook for the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) is one of oscillation, while the long - term view depends on the progress of the Gaza negotiations [1][4] - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success, and its bottom valuation can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiations in Gaza and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium to long term [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - In the past week, the absolute value of January's shipping capacity changed little, about 313,000 TEU/week, with no more pending voyages. The PA Alliance's FE4 route in the 5th week of January was confirmed as a normal dispatch, while the FE3 route in the 4th week changed from a normal dispatch to a blank sailing. Overall, January's shipping schedule became more even, with capacity between 308,000 - 318,000 TEU from the 1st to the 4th week and slightly increasing to 328,000 TEU in the 5th week [4][49] - February currently has 7 blank sailings and 5 pending voyages, with an average weekly capacity of 278,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of the 5 pending voyages). As of now, the first half of January (weeks 6 and 7) operates at full capacity, increasing the pressure on shipping companies to build a rolling pool before the Spring Festival, and blank sailings are mainly concentrated in the second half of January [5][49] Price - The forecast for the 52 - week SCFIS index has been revised down to between 1670 - 1730 points, and the final delivery settlement price of the 2512 contract is expected to be around 1590 - 1610 points. For the 2602 contract, key issues include freight height, inflection point time, and decline rate. The 2602 contract's delivery settlement price is the average of the SCFIS indices of the 4th, 5th, and 6th Wednesdays [6] - For the 2nd - week FAK average forecast, if OA is 2800 and PA is 2600 dollars, the FAK average is about 2700 dollars/FEU; if OA is 3100 and PA is 2800 dollars, the FAK average is about 2820 dollars/FEU. The inflection point is likely to occur in the 3rd or 4th week, and the accelerated decline may start in the 5th week [7] Demand Side - From a Chinese export perspective (valued in amount, updated to November), in November, China's exports to the US declined from - 25.2% in October to - 28.6%, increasing the drag on overall exports; exports to the EU increased by 13.9 percentage points to 14.8% compared to October; exports to ASEAN decreased from 11.0% to 8.2% but remained resilient overall; exports to Africa further increased to 27.6% [27] - From an Asian export to Europe perspective (updated to October), the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume between Asia and Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) in October was - 2.8% [30] - From an Asian export to North America perspective (updated to October), in October, the year - on - year growth rate of Asian exports to North America was - 8.0% [33] Supply Side Geopolitical Situation - Israel's Prime Minister plans to meet with the US President in Washington on December 29, 2025, to discuss issues such as Iran's nuclear activities, the overall security situation in the Middle East, and the next phase of the Gaza plan. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are coordinating on the role of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen, and Saudi Arabia carried out an air strike on STC positions on December 26, 2025 [46] - The Maersk Sebarok, a 6,500 - TEU container ship, passed through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea on the morning of December 19, the first Maersk vessel to do so in nearly two years [5][46] Shipping Schedule - January's shipping capacity changed little, with the 1st - 4th week's capacity between 308,000 - 318,000 TEU and the 5th week's slightly increasing to 328,000 TEU. February has 7 blank sailings and 5 pending voyages, with an average weekly capacity of 278,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages) [4][49] Turnover Efficiency - Data on the sailing speed of 12,000 - TEU container ships, the number of idle 8,000 - 12,000 - TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships are presented, as well as the congestion situation of container ships in ports across different regions such as China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America, and major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [56][59][61] Static Capacity - In December, the top ten liner companies received 2 new 12,000 - 16,999 - TEU container ships and 1 new 17,000 + TEU container ship. From January to March 2026, they are expected to receive multiple new ships of different sizes [72][73][75]