铁水季节性回落,库存压力延续,矿价弱势震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the short - term view on the iron ore market is "oscillation" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Iron ore prices continue to oscillate weakly. The seasonal decline in hot metal production and cautious procurement by steel mills have led to a marginal weakening on the demand side. Supply shipments are stable, port inventories are continuously rising, and valuations have returned to high levels, suppressing the price rebound momentum. The short - term pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, and the market focus has shifted to the extent of hot metal production cuts in January and policy expectations. It is expected that prices will continue to oscillate. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Global Shipment Volume: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28 million tons (-3.56%); Australian shipments were 19.506 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons (-4.97%); Brazilian shipments were 8.641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.488 million tons (-5.35%); the combined shipments from Australia and Brazil were 28.147 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.508 million tons (-5.09%). [3][37] - Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume: The report presents the shipment volume data of four major mines, including BHP, Rio Tinto, FMG, and Vale, both globally and to China, through multiple charts [46][49]. - Domestic Mines: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% (-1.61%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 371,000 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 61,000 tons per day (-1.62%). [57] - Freight: The freight from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45 per ton (-13.99%); the freight from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68 per ton (-2.80%). [53] - Arrival Volume at Chinese Ports: This week, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 Chinese ports was 26.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.767 million tons (-2.82%). [3][55] 3.2 Demand - Steel Enterprise Production: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.94%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01% (+0.01%); the daily average hot metal output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons (+0.01%); the profit ratio was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% (+3.62%). [3][65] - Sintered Powder Consumption: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons (-0.38%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 610,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,500 tons (+9.01%). [67] - Global Steel Production: The report shows the production data of global blast furnace pig iron, Chinese blast furnace pig iron, and global crude steel through multiple charts [74][77][78]. - Port Dredging: The report presents the seasonal data of 45 - port dredging volume, the daily average dredging volume of Qingdao Port, and port spot transactions through charts [84]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: The iron ore inventory at 45 Chinese ports was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons (+2.23%); the iron ore inventory at 47 Chinese ports was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons (+2.43%). [3][87] - Steel Mill Inventory: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons (+1.56%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 12.0626 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,700 tons (+2.18%). [94] 3.4 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The settlement price of the main contract was 776.50 yuan per ton, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.50 yuan per ton (-0.08%); the basis was 30.02 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 4.29 yuan per ton (-12.50%); the Platts iron ore price index was 107.90 US dollars per dry ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.20 US dollars per dry ton (+0.19%); the main - contract screw - to - ore ratio was 4.003. [7] - Spot Market: The report shows the prices of Platts iron ore index, port spot, and different - grade iron ores through multiple charts [17][19][20] 3.5 Other Information - Key News and Industrial Chain Dynamics: Include steel mill dynamics, mine dynamics, and macro - news, such as MagIron's proposed acquisition of RevnoIds pellet plant, Champion Iron's proposed acquisition of Rana Gruber, and the State Council Premier's plan to formulate major projects [4]. - Market View Summary: The overall market view is that supply and demand are loose but expectations are improving. With high inventories, the market oscillates strongly, and macro - sentiment supports prices. There are differences in short - term iron ore trends, mainly due to the game between the expected marginal improvement in supply and demand and high inventories and weak demand. [6]