Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures' Weekly Report on the Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain - Rebound from Low Levels [1] - Date: December 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations Core Contradictions - Pure Benzene: Supply had minor fluctuations this week; demand from major downstream industries such as styrene, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid increased, but long - term demand support is weak. East China port inventory reached a historical high, facing the risk of overstocking. Next year's refinery maintenance plan shows less monthly maintenance loss in the first half of the year compared to the previous two years, and there will be significant de - stocking pressure after the Spring Festival. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf is strong, and the US - South Korea window is open, but the surplus pattern in Asia remains unchanged [2]. - Styrene: The 450,000 - ton styrene plant of Tianjin Bohua unexpectedly shut down this week, reducing short - term supply. There were many export negotiations this week, and both supply and demand had positive news, boosting market sentiment. The rebound in the futures market was also driven by the shift in capital allocation. However, it is still the off - season for demand, and the basis of the main contract weakened after the rapid rise, so it is not recommended to chase high prices [3]. Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Range - bound oscillation - Price Range: BZ2603 oscillates between 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton, and EB2602 oscillates between 6,300 - 6,900 yuan/ton - Strategy Suggestion: Range - bound operation, short on rallies [15] Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Inventory Management: For companies with high finished - product inventory, they can short styrene futures (EB2602) with a hedging ratio of 25% at 6,750 - 6,850 yuan/ton to lock in profits. They can also sell call options (EB2602C6900) with a ratio of 50% at 110 - 130 yuan to reduce capital costs [16]. - Procurement Management: For companies with low regular inventory, they can buy styrene futures (EB2602) with a ratio of 50% at 6,400 - 6,500 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EB2602P6600) with a ratio of 75% at 100 - 120 yuan to reduce procurement costs [16]. Group 3: Weekly Important Information and Next - Week Concerns This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf is strong, and the US - South Korea window is open with reported export transactions. There were frequent styrene export news with deals to South Korea and Europe. The 450,000 - ton/year styrene plant of Tianjin Bohua unexpectedly shut down on December 24 [22]. - Negative Information: As of December 22, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports reached 273,000 tons, a 5% increase from the previous period, at a historical high [21]. Next - Week Important Events - On December 29, pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels) in the US for the week ending December 19, with a previous value of - 1.274 million barrels and a forecast of - 2.432 million barrels. - On December 31, pay attention to the initial jobless claims (10,000 people) in the US for the week ending December 27, with a previous value of 2.14 million people and a forecast of 2.2 million people [23] Group 4: Futures Market Interpretation Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: The futures market rebounded from a low level this week. The top 5 long and short positions in the weekly long - short list significantly reduced their positions, and the net short position of the top 5 profitable seats slightly increased. Although the price rebounded, the inventory was at a high level, with both long and short factors intertwined [24]. Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The monthly C - structure of the styrene futures market flattened slightly. Due to export negotiations and the unexpected shutdown of the plant, the near - term price strengthened, and the calendar spread and basis slightly narrowed [28]. Futures Spread Tracking - The spread between the main contracts of pure benzene and styrene on the futures market strengthened significantly this week. With the high inventory of pure benzene at ports and frequent styrene export news and plant shutdowns, the spread widened rapidly [32] Group 5: Valuation and Profit Analysis Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Naphtha Cracking and Reforming: Analyzed the seasonal trends of naphtha prices, cracking profits, and reforming profits in the international market [37][39]. - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending Economics: Studied the blending economics of toluene and xylene in different regions such as Asia, the US, and Europe [42][45][47]. - Pure Benzene Profit: Tracked the daily production margin of pure benzene [50]. - Pure Benzene Downstream Profit: Analyzed the comprehensive profit and demand of pure benzene downstream industries [53]. - Styrene Profit: Tracked the non - integrated, integrated, and POSM comprehensive profits of styrene [55]. - Styrene Downstream Profit: Analyzed the 3S comprehensive profit and comprehensive operating rate of styrene downstream industries [57]. Import and Export Profit Tracking - Pure Benzene Import Profit: Analyzed the seasonal trend of pure benzene import profit and monthly import volume [59]. - Styrene Import Profit: Analyzed the seasonal trend of styrene import profit and monthly import volume [61] Group 6: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections Supply - Side and Projections - Pure Benzene Supply: This week, the output of petroleum benzene was 436,300 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 74.89%, a 0.05% decrease. The output of hydrogenated benzene was 77,400 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons, with an operating rate of 58.93%, a 2.94% increase. Overall supply had minor fluctuations. Port inventory reached a historical high [62][65]. - Styrene Supply: This week, styrene output was 354,600 tons, an increase of 7,800 tons from the previous period, a 2.25% increase. The factory capacity utilization rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. Port inventory had minor fluctuations [67][70]. Demand - Side and Projections - Pure Benzene Demand: The operating rates of major pure benzene downstream industries such as styrene, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid increased, and the total demand for pure benzene from the five major downstream industries significantly increased [72]. - Styrene Demand: Among the downstream 3S industries, the capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS increased, and the comprehensive demand of 3S increased compared to last week. However, the overall terminal demand is still expected to be weak as the production schedule of household air conditioners in January was further revised down [110]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Analyzed the production, import, and demand data of pure benzene and styrene from 2024 - 2026, and projected the supply - demand balance and inventory changes. Also listed the new capacity investment plans of pure benzene and styrene industries in 2025 [123][124]
南华期货纯苯苯乙烯产业链周报：低位反弹-20251228
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-28 13:10