债市微观结构跟踪：30Y超额换手快速上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in the bond market continued to rebound to 45% [14] - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 25%, with 5 indicators in the over - heated range, 6 in the neutral range, and 9 in the cold range [19] - The average value of the interest rate differential percentile increased by 5 percentage points [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose slightly by 1 percentage point to 45%. The buying volume of funds - rural commercial banks, TL/T long - short ratio, and policy interest rate differential percentile increased by 20, 19, and 10 percentage points respectively, while the configuration disk strength, 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, and money tightness expectation percentile decreased by 20, 8, and 8 percentage points respectively. High - congestion indicators include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and institutional leverage [14] 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 5 (25%), in the neutral range decreased to 6 (30%), and in the cold range remained at 9 (45%). The TL/T long - short ratio moved from the neutral to the over - heated range, the buying volume of funds - rural commercial banks from the cold to the neutral range, and the configuration disk strength from the neutral to the cold range [19] - The average value of the interest rate differential percentile increased by 5 percentage points. In trading heat, the TL/T long - short ratio and the whole - market turnover rate percentile increased by 19 and 2 percentage points, while the 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentiles decreased by 1 and 8 percentage points respectively. In institutional behavior, the money tightness expectation and configuration disk strength percentiles decreased by 8 and 20 percentage points, and the buying volume of funds - rural commercial banks percentile increased by 20 percentage points. The market interest rate differential percentile remained flat, the policy interest rate differential percentile increased by 10 percentage points, and the stock - bond price - ratio percentile increased by 4 percentage points, while the commodity price - ratio percentile decreased by 2 percentage points [19] 3.3. 30/10Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 67%, in the neutral range decreased to 17%, and in the cold range remained at 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio and the whole - market turnover rate percentile increased by 19 and 2 percentage points, and the 1/10Y and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentiles decreased by 8 and 1 percentage points respectively. The 30/10Y Treasury bond relative turnover rate reached a historical high [22] - The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate increased to 5.85, reaching a historical high, and the percentile in the past year remained at 100% [22] 3.4. Configuration Disk Strength - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 0%, in the neutral range at 50%, and in the cold range at 50%. The configuration disk strength, money tightness expectation, and listed company wealth management buying volume percentiles decreased by 20, 8, and 3 percentage points respectively, and the configuration disk strength moved from the neutral to the cold range; the buying volume of funds - rural commercial banks, fund divergence, and fund duration percentiles increased by 20, 6, and 2 percentage points respectively, and the buying volume of funds - rural commercial banks moved from the cold to the neutral range [26] 3.5. Policy Interest Rate Differential Percentile - The loose money supply supported the continued decline of short - term Treasury bond yields. The policy interest rate differential narrowed by 3bp to - 4bp, and the corresponding percentile increased significantly by 10 percentage points to 82%. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 2bp and 1bp to 59bp and - 3bp respectively, the agricultural development - state development spread narrowed slightly by 1bp to 0bp. The average spread of the three remained at 18bp, and its percentile remained at 51% in the neutral range [30] 3.6. Stock - Bond Price - Ratio Percentile - All price - ratio indicators were in the cold range. The stock - bond price - ratio percentile increased by 4 percentage points, the commodity price - ratio percentile decreased by 2 percentage points, and the real - estate price - ratio percentile remained unchanged [33] - The stock - bond price - ratio increased by 6 percentage points to - 10.9%, and the percentile in the past year increased by 4 percentage points to 8%. The commodity price - ratio decreased by 5 percentage points to - 27.3%, and the corresponding percentile in the past year decreased by 2 percentage points to 34%. The real - estate price - ratio decreased by 2 percentage points to - 77.5%, and the percentile in the past year remained at 16%. The consumer goods price - ratio remained at - 81.8% and the percentile in the past year remained at 0% [34][36]