固定收益周度策略报告：“一致预期”的矛盾-20251228

Group 1 - The report identifies two main consensus expectations for the bond market in 2026: a generally "bearish" outlook and a relative safety in short-term bonds under bearish conditions [1][6][9] - The bearish outlook is supported by three key points: alignment of interest rate trends with nominal growth, historical patterns of interest rate increases following bottoming out, and risks of supply-demand imbalances in long-term bonds [1][6][9] - The relative safety of short-term bonds is attributed to the central bank's ample liquidity and stable funding prices, as well as a steady expansion in wealth management products favoring short-term allocations [1][9] Group 2 - The report highlights the difficulty of simultaneously achieving both consensus expectations, noting that historical transitions between bull and bear markets typically involve significant widening of short-term spreads [2][11][13] - Current pricing structures show a divergence in spreads, with long-term spreads reflecting a "bearish" valuation while short-term spreads remain at "bullish" levels, indicating a contradiction in market risk pricing [16][20] - The report suggests that the market's strategy preferences are influenced by past performance, leading to a potential extreme valuation of short-term assets at the beginning of the next year [3][21][28] Group 3 - The report warns of the risk of "overextended odds" in short-term bonds, which could lead to a market correction if liquidity, regulatory, or credit risks arise [31][35] - Historical data indicates that current short-term credit spreads have room to widen, suggesting a potential risk if they approach historical extremes [31][35] - The report concludes that the observed patterns in early-year market behavior often replicate previous dominant strategies, which could compress short-term spreads further, but also highlights the historical tendency for short-term spreads to widen during market corrections [4][35]