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CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-28 13:21

Profit Trends - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 13.1% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous value of -5.5%[5] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in November was approximately 5.7%, which is significantly lower than seasonal levels[12] - The total profit for industrial enterprises in November was 676.6 billion yuan, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2021[12] Price and Cost Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November fell by 2.2% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 2.1% in October[9] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises increased to 85.5 yuan, up by 0.16 yuan year-on-year[29] - The unit revenue expense for the first eleven months was 8.39 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.01 yuan year-on-year[32] Inventory Insights - As of the end of November, the inventory of finished products for industrial enterprises increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with a 0.9 percentage point rise from October[33] - The actual inventory growth rate, excluding PPI effects, was 6.8%, slightly up from 5.8% in October[33] - The PMI data indicated a divergence, showing a decrease in inventory while actual inventory levels were still rising, suggesting unclear signals regarding destocking[33] Sector Performance - The upstream mining sector showed significant improvement with revenue growth of 5.3% and profit growth of 24.4% in November[23] - The midstream intermediate goods manufacturing sector faced challenges, with revenue and profit growth rates of -10.7% and -21.2%, respectively[26] - The downstream consumer goods manufacturing sector reported a profit margin of 11.7%, but revenue and profit growth were both negative at -12.2% and -22.6%[27]