南华期货白糖产业周报：反弹还是反转？-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus lies in whether the current sugar price has bottomed out. Key contradictions include the rationality of the 01 contract price, the future price of the 05 contract, and whether the international market can stabilize above 15 cents [2]. - The upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing down. The overall structure has not reversed, and there is a possibility of price fluctuations and a return to a downward trend [10]. - The long - term backwardation pattern of sugar futures is difficult to break, and there is a possibility of further widening of the spread [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The 01 contract has entered the delivery month. After a significant rebound, its price dropped compared to the far - month contracts last Thursday. The 01 price corresponds to a minimum spot price of about 5160 yuan according to the Brazilian out - of - quota 45 - day shipping import price [2]. - The 05 contract is currently at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but is similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price. It is more likely to follow the raw sugar price, but the probability of further price increases is limited due to insufficient bullish factors [2]. - The international raw sugar price rose after a decline last week, approaching 15.2 cents. However, it has been suppressed after reaching this price four times. The bullish impact is more reflected in the far - month contracts, and the rebound height of the near - month sugar price is expected to be limited [2]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing down. The moving averages show a clear bearish arrangement. Although the 05 contract's K - line briefly crossed the 10 - day, 20 - day, and 30 - day moving averages, the overall structure has not changed, and there is a possibility of price fluctuations [10]. - Recent Strategy Review: - The unilateral long position in SR2511 has been stopped out. - The strategy of selling spot and buying SR2511 has been entered [11]. - Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: - Basis Strategy: None. - Spread Strategy: Short 05 and long 09 [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 11.29% and a historical percentile of 2.2% over three years [12]. - Hedging Strategy: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 5300 - 5350 yuan) and sell call options (SR603C5400, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 35 - 40) [12]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 5100 - 5150 yuan) and sell put options (SR603P5000, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 30) [12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish Information: - As of December 25, 2025, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 2025/26 crushing season have started production, one less than the previous year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 59.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons year - on - year [13]. - As of December 24, 2025, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume in the 2025/26 crushing season was 11.5321 million tons, a decrease of 1.9633 million tons (14.54%) year - on - year. Sugar production was 1.0005 million tons, a decrease of 0.1667 million tons (14.28%) year - on - year [13]. - In India, sugarcane in the Kuditrey region is suffering losses due to flowering, and farmers have requested early crushing [13]. - Brazil's mid - southern region's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to be 38 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous season [14]. - Bearish Information: - In November 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.431 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, it was 26.85 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The beverage output in November was 10.457 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase; from January to November, it was 165.606 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [15]. - As of December 18, 2025, 69 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 2025/26 crushing season have started production, five less than the previous year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 57.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons year - on - year [16]. - As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 7.825 million tons, a 27.69% increase year - on - year [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Brazil's weekly port waiting sugar quantity and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) [17]. - Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [21]. - India's sugar - crushing progress [21]. - December production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan [21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Domestic Market: - Unilateral Trend: The futures price rose last week, with the main 05 contract rising 3.87% for the week. The position of the SR2605 contract has seasonally declined recently. The largest profit - taking seat in sugar has significantly increased its net short position to 15,000 contracts, while the net short position of foreign - funded seats has slightly decreased to 52,300 contracts. Technically, although the short - term price has risen significantly, the bearish arrangement still exists, and the price may fluctuate [19]. - Basis and Spread Structure: - Basis Structure: The premium of the cheapest deliverable for the 01 contract has dropped to - 249 yuan/ton. If calculated based on the import price around January 15, the futures price is still at a premium of about 100 yuan/ton [22]. - Spread Structure: The 1 - 5 spread changed significantly last week due to the rapid decline of the 01 contract price. The long - term price difference is stable, with a slight near - month premium [22]. - International Market: - Unilateral Trend: The raw sugar price rose last week, up 2.15%. The price is approaching the Brazilian export cost line. The non - commercial position of CFTC has maintained a large short position but decreased last week [24]. - Spread Structure: The current raw sugar futures show a back structure with strong near - month and weak far - month prices. The pressure of increased production in the Thai and Indian markets is high. The far - month discount is unfavorable for sugar mills' hedging, and the hedging pressure reappears above 15.2 cents [27]. - Domestic - International Spread Tracking: Due to the quota system, the price fluctuations of Zhengzhou sugar are much smaller than those of raw sugar. Recently, affected by the start of sugar mills in Guangxi and large imports, the domestic supply pressure has increased, while the overseas export profit has shrunk to a loss. The previous pattern of strong domestic and weak international markets has temporarily changed to weak domestic and strong international markets [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Import Profit Tracking: China is a net importer of sugar, and the production cost is higher than the international market. With the recent decline in the international price and the firm domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit is very high. In addition to sugar imports, syrup and premixed powder imports are also used to supplement supply. Although the import window from Thailand and Vietnam has been closed, imports from other Asian countries such as Malaysia have increased. Recently, the imports of syrup and premixed powder have been relatively stable [32]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Projection - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection: Since the 2025/26 crushing season, considering the good growth of sugarcane in the Guangxi production area, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly compared to last year. According to the November data from the China Sugar Association, the estimated production will rise to about 11.56 million tons, a 3.56% year - on - year increase. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 crushing season and the current situation and are not used as a reference for real - world data [34].