南华期货铁合金周报：短期震荡偏强，下方亦有支撑，但上涨空间或有限-20251228

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that the ferroalloys market will experience range-bound fluctuations. The price range for the silicon ferroalloy main contract 2603 is between 5300 - 5800, and for the silicon manganese main contract 2603, it is between 5500 - 6000. It suggests a wait - and - see approach for basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies [9]. Core Viewpoints - Ferroalloys have been oscillating strongly recently. The reasons include the expected impact of policies on high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects and cost support from increased electricity prices in some areas. However, the upside potential is limited. The downstream demand may be a temporary rebound, and the market should be cautiously bearish due to cost support [2]. - The production of silicon manganese increased slightly this week, while silicon ferroalloy continued to reduce production, but at a slower pace. Silicon ferroalloy inventory decreased, while silicon manganese inventory continued to accumulate, with a high inventory base and significant de - stocking pressure [2]. - In the future, both the supply and demand of ferroalloys are expected to decline. The high inventory level will further suppress demand, and de - stocking may need to be achieved through production cuts [67]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - Core Contradictions - The main reasons for the strong oscillation of ferroalloys are policy expectations and cost support. However, the increase in silicon manganese production and high inventory are negative factors. The downstream demand may be a short - term rebound, and the market should be cautiously bearish [2]. - Trading Strategy Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, and for silicon manganese, it is also 5300 - 6000 [6]. - Hedging Strategies: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, short - selling ferroalloy futures is recommended to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buying ferroalloy futures is recommended to lock in procurement costs [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events - This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Policy expectations such as anti - involution, green transformation, and the 14th Five - Year Plan, as well as the reduction trend of silicon ferroalloy production, the increase in magnesium ingot production, and the improvement of downstream steel profits [8][10]. - Negative Information: The slight increase in silicon manganese production and the high inventory base of silicon manganese [11]. - Next Week's Key Events - Next Wednesday, China's manufacturing PMI, the US initial jobless claims, and the Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes will be released [17]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation - Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Analyzed the closing prices and positions of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese, as well as the basis and calendar spread structures [14][16]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The downstream demand is weakening, and ferroalloy producers are facing losses. The market expects ferroalloys to continue the production - cut trend [36]. - Import - Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between the export profit and export volume of silicon ferroalloy [66]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Both the supply and demand of ferroalloys are expected to decline in the future, and high inventory will suppress demand. De - stocking may require production cuts [67]. - Supply - Side Projections - The production of ferroalloys is expected to decrease due to weak demand and low production profits [67]. - Demand - Side Projections - The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline as the molten iron output is likely to decrease, and the inventory of five major steel products needs to be reduced through production cuts [67]. - Inventory - Side Projections - The inventory of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese is at a five - year high, and de - stocking may need to be achieved through production cuts [67].