行业周报：黑色金属周报：焦炭第三轮提降落地，钢铁冬储预期升温-20251228

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the steel industry, with a rating reflecting an expected increase in the industry performance compared to the broader market [85]. Core Insights - The CITIC Steel Industry Index increased by 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5%. The average profit margin for steel mills is reported at -31.2 yuan per ton, with a profitability rate of 37.2% for steel companies, indicating a stable bottom in the industry fundamentals [10][11]. - The hot-rolled coil prices showed mixed trends, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3342 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan from the previous week. The market sentiment is weak, primarily driven by low-price promotions for transactions [11]. - The coking coal market is experiencing weak performance, with the main coking coal price at 1393 yuan per ton, stable compared to last week. The demand for coking coal remains subdued due to reduced consumption by downstream coke enterprises [12]. - Iron ore prices have slightly increased, with the average price for 61.5% Fe powder at 795 yuan per ton, up 1.7% year-on-year. However, the overall supply remains constrained due to high port inventories [13]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The CITIC Steel Industry Index rose by 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5%. The average profit margin for long and short process steel production is reported at -9.7 yuan and -7.4 yuan per ton, respectively [10]. 1.2 Sub-industry Fundamentals Overview - The hot-rolled coil prices are fluctuating, with a noted decrease in prices across major markets. The market is characterized by weak demand and low speculative sentiment, with a focus on essential inventory replenishment [11]. 2.1 Profitability - The profitability rate for steel companies stands at 37.2%, indicating a stable bottom in the industry fundamentals despite negative profit margins [10]. 2.2 Operating Rates - The operating rates for steel mills are reported at 78.32%, with daily average pig iron production remaining stable, reflecting a cautious approach to raw material replenishment [13]. 3.1 Steel Prices - The average price for hot-rolled coils is reported at 3342 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease noted in the previous week [11]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coking coal prices remain stable at 1393 yuan per ton, while iron ore prices have seen a slight increase, indicating mixed trends in raw material pricing [12][13]. 4.1 Steel Supply and Demand Data - The report highlights the supply and demand dynamics within the steel industry, with a focus on the impact of environmental regulations and production adjustments by steel mills [11].