2026年宏观经济及资产配置展望：宏图新启，升维致远

Economic Overview - As of November 2025, China's fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all showing negative growth[27] - The cumulative trade surplus from January to November 2025 reached $1.08 trillion, indicating strong export resilience despite trade tensions[7] Consumer Trends - Retail sales in the service sector grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025, outpacing overall retail sales growth by 1.4 percentage points[12] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting approximately 360 million people, with an average spending of 6,944 yuan per person[12] Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment growth was recorded at 1.9% year-on-year for the first eleven months of 2025, down from 9.2% in 2024[41] - The construction industry is expected to see a rebound in investment growth to over 5% in 2026, supported by policy-driven financial tools[36] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment and sales have both declined, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year decrease of 30% in investment and 17% in new home sales[50] - The average rental yield remains low compared to the weighted average mortgage rate of 3.1% as of November 2025[58] Policy Measures - A series of consumer promotion policies have been implemented since early 2025, aiming to enhance consumption across various sectors, including digital and service industries[16] - The government plans to establish three trillion-yuan-level and ten hundred-billion-yuan-level consumption fields by 2027, indicating a strategic focus on consumption growth[24]