商品期权周报：2025年第52周-20251228

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week (2025.12.21 - 2025.12.26), the trading volume of the commodity options market increased slightly, with an average daily trading volume of 8.43 million lots and an average daily open interest of 7.03 million lots, showing a week-on-week change of +22.16% and +8.84% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed price movements this week. Most commodity options' implied volatility increased on a weekly basis. The market sentiment for different varieties also varied, with some showing a concentrated expectation of price decline and others showing an expectation of price increase [2][16][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of actively - traded varieties this week included silver (1.52 million lots), PTA (0.69 million lots), and nickel (0.43 million lots). Five varieties had a trading - volume increase of over 100%, with significant growth in paraxylene (+461%), nickel (+196%), and rapeseed meal (+171%). Meanwhile, LPG (-79%), fuel oil (-79%), and soybeans No.1 (-71%) had obvious trading - volume declines. The varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (0.47 million lots), silver (0.45 million lots), and soda ash (0.45 million lots). Paraxylene (+282%) and PTA (+119%) had a relatively rapid week - on - week increase in open interest [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - The varieties with high weekly increases included silver (+14%), lithium carbonate (+5.34%), and PTA (+4.62%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included polysilicon (-2.14%) and Shanghai tin (-1.58%) [2][16]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased on a weekly basis, with the current implied volatility of 42 varieties above the 50% percentile of the past year. The implied volatility of silver, nickel, lithium carbonate, paraxylene, and staple fiber increased by 22.06, 18.17, 11.59, 10.22, and 10.17 percentage points respectively. Varieties with implied volatility at a one - year high included silver, tin, nickel, aluminum, copper, and paraxylene; those with implied volatility at a one - year low included soybean oil [2][16]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - Currently, the trading - volume PCR of lithium carbonate and apples is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated expectation of price decline in the market; the trading - volume PCR of live pigs, aluminum, rapeseed oil, corn, gold, and rubber is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated expectation of price increase. The open - interest PCR of lithium carbonate, silver, paraxylene, and PTA is at a historical high, showing a high level of market sentiment for betting on price decline; the open - interest PCR of aluminum, ethylene glycol, zinc, and styrene is at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of market sentiment for betting on price increase [2][17]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data for more varieties can be found on the official website of Dongzheng Fanwei (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [22]. 3.3.1 Energy - Relevant charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR of crude oil, but no specific data analysis in the text [23][24][27]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - PTA: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR, but no specific data analysis in the text [30][31][37]. - Caustic Soda: Similar to PTA, relevant data are presented in charts without specific text analysis [39][40][41]. - Glass: Charts show related data, and there is no specific text analysis [45][46][47]. - Soda Ash: Charts present relevant information, and no detailed text analysis [53][54][56]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals - Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR of silver, with no specific text analysis [62][63][64]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are presented in charts, and no detailed text analysis [70][71][72]. - Silicomanganese: Similar to iron ore, relevant data are shown in charts without specific text analysis [77][78][79]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR, with no specific text analysis [85][86][90]. - Aluminum: Similar to copper, relevant data are presented in charts without detailed text analysis [92][93][95]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are shown in charts, and no detailed text analysis [98][100][103]. - Palm Oil: Relevant data are presented in charts without specific text analysis [106][107][108]. - Cotton: Similar to the above, relevant data are shown in charts without detailed text analysis [114][115][117].