地方债周度跟踪：明年发行或继续前置，Q1已披露计划发行16809亿元-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis this period, and are expected to increase next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) was 20.37 billion yuan/-31.74 billion yuan, compared with 400.37 billion yuan/281.57 billion yuan in the previous period. Next period (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), it is expected to be 260.00 billion yuan/174.49 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 - billion - yuan carry - over quota. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 96.2% and 103.8% considering the next - period issuance [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is 168.09 billion yuan. As of December 26, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale. The issuance in 26Q1 may be similar to that in 25Q1, with refinancing bonds issued earlier. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger [2]. - There was no issuance of special new special bonds this period, nor of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 136.68 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 200 billion yuan, with the issuance progress at 100%; and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 28.75 billion yuan [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for 10Y and 30Y this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a week - on - week basis. As of December 26, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 20.24BP and 15.67BP respectively, narrowing by 2.68BP and 5.81BP compared with December 19, 2025 [2]. - Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of current 3/10/15Y local government bonds. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an anchor, the top of the spread adjustment since 2018 may be 20 - 25BP above the issuance spread floor, and the bottom may be near the issuance spread floor [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Declined and the Weighted Issuance Term Shortened - The issuance of local government bonds in this period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) was 20.37 billion yuan, compared with 400.37 billion yuan in the previous period. Next period (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the forecasted issuance is 260.00 billion yuan [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period was 15.14 years, shorter than 16.15 years in the previous period [2][10]. - As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 96.2% and 103.8% considering the next - period issuance [2][18]. - There was no issuance of special new special bonds this period, nor of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 136.68 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 200 billion yuan, with the issuance progress at 100%; and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 28.75 billion yuan [2][20]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is 168.09 billion yuan. As of December 26, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale. The issuance in 26Q1 may be similar to that in 25Q1, with refinancing bonds issued earlier. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger. The planned issuance scales in January, February, and March 2026 are 69.25 billion yuan, 24.22 billion yuan, and 74.62 billion yuan respectively [2][24]. - The issuance terms of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 in Guangxi, Ningbo, and Zhejiang, where term data are disclosed, show signs of shortening compared with the same period last year [2][31]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Narrowed for 10Y and 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Decreased on a Week - on - Week Basis - As of December 26, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 20.24BP and 15.67BP respectively, narrowing by 2.68BP and 5.81BP compared with December 19, 2025 [2][37]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in this period was 0.66%, down from 0.77% in the previous period [2][47]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Jilin this period are better than the national average [2].