南华期货甲醇产业周报：低位买入-20251228

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term methanol market fundamentals are weak. After the previous port unloading issue was resolved, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has resurfaced. Inland, after the restart of Jiutai and the increase in freight rates, the inland demand is met by the port, leading to inventory accumulation and price cuts. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics decreases, and factories want to reduce inventory through price cuts. Attention should be paid to the turning points in the inland market, such as concentrated bearish sentiment or the start of inventory reduction. The port is concerned about MTO profits due to poor downstream performance, but MTO's own profits are still acceptable, and Fude may return before the festival. The main negative factor is the upcoming port inventory accumulation, which may last until mid - January, reaching a level of 160. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract when the price is between 2050 - 2100 [3]. - The near - term trading logic is the enhanced willingness to hold goods due to the shutdown of Iranian plants. The long - term trading expectation is that the key point for methanol is how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract will be stronger than the 2601 contract, with the 1 - 5 spread in a reverse arbitrage situation, and the process is affected by macro sentiment [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term market fundamentals are weak. Port inventory accumulation is expected, and inland inventory is also increasing with price cuts. Attention should be paid to inland turning points and port MTO profit concerns. The main negative is port inventory accumulation, but there are still positive factors in the future, such as Fude's restart, a sharp decrease in Iranian imports, and a reduction in non - Iranian imports, which may lead to port inventory reduction. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract at 2050 - 2100 [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - Base - spread Strategy: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2120. After the price on the futures market rose and then fell, the 01 base spread remained stable [12]. - Month - spread Strategy: This week, with the shutdown of Iranian plants, the 1 - 5 spread was in a positive arbitrage situation [13]. - Trend Judgment: Methanol will fluctuate in the short - term. The short - term operating range of methanol 2601 is 1900 - 2200. It is recommended to reduce the position of selling put options on methanol 2601 and sell call options at the same time [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Various inventory data of methanol in the inland area are presented, including the inventory of the northwest region, southern and northern lines, and the national factory - level inventory, as well as the weekly pending orders of Chinese methanol enterprises [21][25][28]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Various inventory data of methanol in the port area are presented, including the weekly inventory of Chinese ports, the inventory of different provinces, and the inventory of various warehouses in Jiangsu. In addition, data on the shipping volume and arrival volume of methanol are also provided [36][44][50]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Price Range Forecast: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over 3 years [61]. - Hedging Strategy: Different hedging strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management, including using futures, put options, and call options, with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [61]. - Positive Information: The 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong Phase II started in December, and the goods will be available after the post - festival device approval is completed [62]. - Negative Information: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, 1.25 million tons in November, and 0.26 million tons in December [63]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - The fundamental support is average. Although the production area factories have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics, they still intend to maintain low inventory and mainly reduce prices to sell goods in the first half of the week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and some traders are short - selling. The market in the sales area is also declining [65]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland area, after the restart of Jiutai's methanol plant, the expected demand for olefins will shrink in the future, and the upward momentum of methanol in the northwest region will be limited. In the sales area, the logic of demand growth is clear. Yangmei Hydrocarbon plans to restart at the beginning of December, and Lianhong's new olefin project is expected to start in early December. After the arbitrage space between the port and Henan to northern Shandong is closed, the local supply in the sales area will be limited, and the supply - demand tight situation will be more prominent. The price support in the southern sales area is strong and is expected to continue to be stronger than that in the northern production area [66]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuated, mainly because of the increase in Iranian shipments [68]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Price Tracking - The prices of upstream coal (such as Ordos pit - mouth coal price and Qinhuangdao port coal price) and downstream methanol (such as methanol in Lunan and Taicang markets) are tracked. In addition, data on the number of warehouse receipts and methanol valuation are also provided [71][72][81]. 3.4.2 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Profit Tracking - The production costs and profits of methanol from different raw materials (such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia, natural - gas - based in Chongqing, and coke - oven - gas - based in Hebei) are tracked, as well as the profits of downstream products such as MTO [83][104]. 3.4.3 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Production and Output Tracking - The weekly operating rates and production of methanol from different raw materials and different regions are tracked, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as MTO, traditional downstream products, and some chemical products [91][100][108]. 3.4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - The import volumes of methanol from different countries (such as Malaysia and Venezuela) and the shipping volume of Iranian methanol are tracked. In addition, data on the external structure of methanol, import profits, and price differences are also provided [128]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking - The weekly capacity utilization rate, output, and operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants overseas are tracked [131][132]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A supply - demand balance sheet for methanol from January 2025 to May 2026 is presented, including the supply (imports, olefin production, etc.), demand (olefin consumption, acetic acid consumption, etc.), and inventory changes in the port area [135].