南华期货钢材周报：短期尚无驱动，区间震荡-20251228

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in a state of range - bound trading, with steel prices supported by cost at the bottom but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations at the top. The running range of rebar is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is between 3000 - 3400 [1][7]. - The supply - demand balance of finished steel products is marginally improving, with inventory maintaining a destocking trend. However, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is gradually increasing. The high inventory of coil products remains a problem, and the consumption side lacks drivers [16][17]. Summary by Section Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The fundamental contradictions of finished steel products are not significant, maintaining a trend of production reduction and destocking. The consumption of hot - rolled coils improved significantly last week, but it may be due to pre - export rush before export controls take effect, and the sustainability of demand needs further attention [1]. - The profit of blast furnaces and electric furnaces has increased recently, so the intensity of finished steel production reduction may weaken. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly last week, but terminal demand is weak, and the destocking trend of rebar may slow down if production continues to increase without improvement in consumption [1]. - The pig iron output increased slightly last week, and whether it has bottomed out needs further observation. The slight increase in pig iron output supports the strength of iron ore prices, but the iron ore port inventory is accumulating, and there is also pressure on the upside of iron ore prices. The steel mill inventory of iron ore is relatively low compared to previous years, providing support for replenishment demand [1]. - The coking coal supply is relatively loose, restricting its upside space [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Range - bound trading. The running range of rebar is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is between 3000 - 3400 [7]. - Near - Term Trading Logic: The logic of steel production reduction and weak demand in the off - season; the supply - demand balance of rebar is marginally improving, with inventory maintaining a slow destocking trend, while the coil product side is still in a state of high inventory with large destocking pressure [4]. - Long - Term Trading Expectations: The anti - involution expectation always exists; the 14th Five - Year Plan expectation; the recovery of blast furnace and electric furnace profits, and the expectation of future production reduction is gradually weakening [6]. - Spread and Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: Wait and see [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The 01 - contract price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, and for hot - rolled coil is 3100 - 3500 [7]. - Rebar Risk Management Strategy Recommendations: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and worried about steel price decline, short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures or sell call options. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures or sell put options [7]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - Positive Information: News of multi - department measures to boost consumption; marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of finished steel products with inventory destocking; gradual improvement in blast furnace and electric furnace profits; policies promoting coal clean and efficient use and traditional industry optimization [16]. - Negative Information: The steel peak season is not prosperous, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is increasing; the iron ore inventory at ports is accumulating again, and the high valuation of iron ore may affect the price of finished steel products; the coil product side is still in a state of high inventory with no consumption - side drivers [17]. 2.2 Next - Week Important Event Concerns - Next Wednesday, China's manufacturing PMI will be announced; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the current week will be announced; the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [15][24]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Analyzes the basis, spread between coil and rebar, term structure, and monthly spread structure of steel products through various seasonal charts [18][22][28][31]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, falling below 40%, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, and the motivation for the five major steel products to reduce production may gradually weaken [41]. 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - Analyzes the export profit of hot - rolled coils through various charts, including the relationship between export profit and export volume, and the relationship with overseas prices [62]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Provides data on steel production, inventory, and other aspects, such as the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the inventory of steel mills [90]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Analyzes the supply of steel products from aspects such as pig iron + scrap steel estimation, production prediction of rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the relationship between steel mill profits and scrap steel consumption [97][98][101]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Predicts the consumption of steel products, including the consumption of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and other steel products, and analyzes the inventory of various steel products [114][124].