美元债双周报（25年第52周）：就业降温、通胀回落，美债配置坚守中短久期防御-20251228

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform the Market" [1][4] Core Viewpoints - The US employment data continues to cool down, with weak employment growth and an increasing unemployment rate. The inflation data unexpectedly cools down, providing room for the expectation of interest rate cuts next year. The US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years [1][2] - The current US Treasury market presents complex characteristics of both inflation stickiness and fiscal expansion pressure. It is recommended to prioritize defense, core - allocate medium - and short - duration investment - grade bonds, and moderately allocate TIPS while keeping a low allocation for long - duration varieties over 10 years [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Macro - economy and Liquidity - The US employment market is weak. In November, non - farm employment increased by about 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm employment decreased by 105,000, mainly due to the significant shrinkage of federal government employment. The private sector's employment elasticity is insufficient [1] - The inflation in the US cools down. In November, the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021, which provides more room for future monetary policy adjustments and the expectation of interest rate cuts next year [2] - The US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, mainly driven by the resilience of consumer and corporate spending and more stable trade policies. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 3.5%, and corporate investment remained strong [2] Exchange Rate - No specific text - based content is provided, only information about related charts such as the one - year trend of non - US currencies, recent changes in non - US currencies, etc. [50][55] Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - Information about the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), and the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds are presented in the form of charts [63][65] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 16 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating revocations, 6 rating upgrades, 5 rating downgrades, and 3 initial ratings [71]