Report Title - The report is titled "South China Futures Glass and Soda Ash Industry Weekly Report - Low-level Volatility" [1] Report Date - The report date is December 28, 2025 [2] 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash trends include potential glass production line cold repairs from late December to before the Spring Festival, which impact far - month pricing and market expectations. Policy - end supply disturbances in 2026 cannot be ruled out [2]. - Soda ash is mainly cost - priced. Despite occasional supply cuts, new capacities are pending, and production remains at a medium - high level. Without a trend of production cuts, its valuation lacks upward elasticity. With the resurgence of glass cold - repair expectations, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline [2]. - Currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested. Soda ash is expected to have an oversupply situation due to new capacities [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The glass spot is weak, with cold - repair expectations but high middle - reach inventory. The sustainability needs to be observed, including unexpected cold - repair situations and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing [8]. - Strategy Suggestion: The 05 contract is more about expectations. The glass and soda ash trends are unclear, lacking clear signals, and are expected to be volatile. It is advisable to observe [8]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass: The average spot price of glass decreased by 2 yuan on December 28, 2025. The 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass futures increased by 0.96%, 1.13%, and 0.43% respectively on December 26, 2025. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions on December 26, 2025, were 105 in Shahe, 129 in Hubei, 108 in East China, and 109 in South China [12][13]. - Soda Ash: There was little change in the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions on December 26, 2025. The 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash futures increased by 1.35%, 1.45%, and 0.54% respectively on December 26, 2025 [14][15]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: There are still some glass production line cold - repair expectations to be fulfilled from late December to before the Spring Festival, and supply is starting to shrink. The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, which may lead to market expectations of supply - side policies [15][16]. - Negative Information: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, with near - term spot pressure. The far - month demand expectation lacks elasticity, and there are differences in the degree of demand decline. New capacities of soda ash are expected to increase long - term supply pressure, and the resurgence of glass cold - repair expectations affects the rigid demand for soda ash [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - The sales - to - production situation and spot price of glass, as well as the spot transaction situation of soda ash [18]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Single - Side Trends and Capital Movements - The expectation of the main 05 contract of glass is unclear, with weak supply and demand and no clear signals. The near - term spot pressure of glass is high, and the middle - reach inventory is high. The far - month has expectations of supply cuts and cost increases, but the demand is unclear [19]. 3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - Glass: The 01 contract is approaching delivery. This week, the 5 - 9 spread was mainly volatile, with no clear directional movement due to unclear supply - demand expectations and a wait - and - see attitude from funds [23]. - Soda Ash: It maintains a C structure overall. With the launch of new capacities, the long - term pattern may deteriorate again [24]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have slight profits [40]. - Soda Ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1,200 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,105 yuan/ton [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The average monthly net export of float glass is 6 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with a limited impact [47]. - Soda Ash: The average monthly net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in November was close to 190,000 tons, maintaining a high - expectation level [47]. 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 154,500 tons. There are still some cold - repair production lines to be fulfilled from late December to before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting volume is expected to decline further [54]. - Soda Ash: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates slightly around 10 tons. The first 1 - million - ton soda ash capacity of the second phase of Alxa (total 2.8 million tons) started trial production on December 9. The new 700,000 - ton capacity of Yingcheng Xindu may be put into production in mid - to - late December [58]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, and the spot pressure remains. As of mid - December, the deep - processing orders of glass were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The cumulative apparent demand for glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 6.9 - 7%. Terminal demand remains weak, and downstream restocking during the off - season is limited [61]. - Soda Ash: Currently, the total daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,000 tons, showing a slight decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,600 tons. With the expectation of further glass cold - repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and the inventory days have risen to over 35 days. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash from January to November (including imports and exports) is estimated to be - 0.05%. The rigid demand for soda ash weakens slightly month - on - month, and downstream restocks mainly for rigid demand at low prices [74]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the total manufacturer inventory is 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes, or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, the same as the previous period. The middle - reach inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [85]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash inventory is 1.4385 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,800 tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory is 735,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,900 tons; the heavy - soda ash inventory is 703,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,700 tons. The delivery - warehouse inventory is 395,100 tons (a decrease of 55,200 tons). The total inventory of factory warehouses and delivery warehouses is 1.8336 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 116,000 tons. The upstream inventory reduction exceeds expectations [85].
玻璃纯碱产业周报：低位震荡-20251228
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-28 14:07