Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-28 14:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to trade between $55 and $70 per barrel [2][3] - The report highlights the continued rise in long-term contracts for refrigerants and anticipates price increases for organic silicon, suggesting a focus on commercial aerospace and storage sectors [2][3] - The demand for R134a refrigerant is projected to increase significantly due to the growing penetration of electric vehicles, while the import demand for high GWP varieties like R125 may rise as India approaches the final year of its quota baseline [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is constrained by delayed OPEC+ production increases and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [3] - Coal prices are expected to oscillate at a long-term bottom, with easing pressures on mid and downstream sectors [3] - The U.S. is likely to accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [3] Chemical Sector Analysis - The report suggests a focus on four key areas for investment: 1. Textile and apparel chain, benefiting from high demand and improved supply conditions [2] 2. Agricultural chemicals, with steady growth in fertilizer demand supported by increasing planting areas [2] 3. Export-related chemical products, as global inventories are at historical lows and interest rates are expected to decline [2] 4. "Anti-involution" policies leading to accelerated elimination of outdated capacities [2] Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., and Haohua Technology are recommended for their potential in the refrigerant market [2] - In the organic silicon sector, companies like Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Material, and Xin'an Chemical are highlighted for their expected price increases [2] - For new materials, attention is drawn to Guocer Materials, Ruihuatai, and calcium titanate materials due to the growing commercial aerospace market [2] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall industrial product PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5] - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2, showing a slight improvement, with overall demand recovering and inventory depletion accelerating [5]