南华期货苹果产业周报：有重新转强的趋势-20251228

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price of the 01 contract of apple futures is likely to continue rising and may reach or exceed the level of the 12 contract due to reduced supply and fewer deliverable fruits [1][2] - The subsequent factor determining apple prices will shift from supply to consumption, and there is a risk of the traditional peak - season being lackluster due to changes in consumption structure [1] - The 05 contract has room for future price increases as good - quality apples are scarce, despite recent price retracements [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction for the 01 contract is its final closing price. With this year's apple production reduction and quality decline, fewer deliverable fruits are supporting the price increase [1] - The uncertainty lies in whether the upcoming Spring Festival consumption season will be good or bad, as there are concerns about weak consumption and the "bad money driving out good" situation [1] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The upward momentum of apples has fluctuated recently. Last week, apple futures prices were oscillating strongly, with more significant retracements in the far - month contracts. The net long position decreased to 5232 lots [5] - The basis strategy is difficult to formulate due to the difficulty in determining the spot target, and the month - spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6][7] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 15.1% over three years [8] - For inventory management, when worried about a bumper apple harvest and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures (AP2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton and sell call options (AP2603C) with a 25% ratio at 100 - 120 yuan/ton [8] - For procurement management, when worried about rising apple prices, enterprises can buy apple futures (AP2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton and sell put options (AP2603P9) with a 75% ratio at 160 - 200 yuan/ton [8] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of December 24, steel - union data showed that the national apple cold - storage inventory was 744.04 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.94 million tons; while Zhuochuang data showed 702.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.06 million tons [11] - In the market, inquiries for late - Fuji apples increased in the second half of the week, but the transaction of farmers' apples was still limited. The consumption in the Guangdong market improved slightly, but there was pressure in daily vehicle - load digestion [11] 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Zhuochuang and steel - union will release weekly inventory data every Thursday [14] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures oscillated with little overall change, and the near - month contracts were slightly stronger. The position of the main 05 contract decreased seasonally and was lower than last year's level. Profitable seats reduced their positions last week [14] - Technically, the 01 contract of apple futures was strong at a high level, showing an obvious bullish trend, while the 05 contract was weak and needed time to adjust [14] 3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - The basis structure of apples is complex due to inconsistent apple quality each year and different grading conditions in Shandong and the northwest regions. The futures delivery rules are also constantly changing [16] - The 1 - 5 spread has strengthened since December, driven by the near - month delivery logic. The shortage of deliverable fruits has pushed up the price of near - month contracts and the spread, which may further widen before entering the delivery month [16] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. This year, storing apples is challenging due to more low - quality fruits and fewer high - quality ones [18] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Affected by spring hot - dry winds and rainy weather during the harvest period, this year's apple production and quality have significantly declined. Zhuochuang estimates the 2025 apple production to be about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year [20] - Based on the current warehousing situation, inventory is about 10% lower than the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be even lower due to more inferior fruits [20]