南华期货LPG产业周报：近端仍有支撑，预期承压-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG prices mostly fluctuate following the trends of overseas propane and crude oil. Recently, the domestic PG has been affected by both current and expected factors. The current domestic fundamentals are moderately strong with continuous inventory reduction at ports and high PDH operation rates. However, in the future, overseas supply remains resilient, and domestic PDH profits are under significant pressure, with some enterprises expected to undergo maintenance. There is still short - term support, and marginal changes should be monitored [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: The international crude oil market is volatile. It faces the pressure of oversupply and is continuously affected by geopolitical risks. This week, it continued to rebound at the beginning of the week due to the US - Venezuela issue and was mostly volatile in the second half of the week [1] - Overseas propane: The overseas propane market is relatively strong. In the US, shipments were low this week due to fog and holidays, and in the Middle East, the shipment volume remained at a low level, with the tight supply situation continuing. This week, FEI and CP prices continued to rise, with FEI premium at 18.75 and CP premium at 50, indicating structural support in the international market [1] - Domestic fundamentals: The domestic supply side saw a low arrival volume this week, and port inventories continued to decline. On the chemical demand side, the PDH operation rate increased to 76.32% this week, but the industry has been in a deep loss state. There are rumors that some PDH enterprises plan to undergo maintenance, and the actual maintenance situation should be monitored [1] 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Volatility. The price range for PG02 is 3800 - 4400 [20] - Basis strategy: Volatility [20] - Recent strategy review: Go short on PG2 - 3 spread at high prices; Hold the position of buying PP and shorting PG, as PDH is in a continuous loss state. Pay attention to the negative feedback. It is expected that some enterprises will undergo maintenance in the first quarter. Pay attention to widening the spread between 05PP and 03PG [20][21] - Monthly spread strategy: Volatility. Go short on the spread at high prices [23] - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Narrow the internal - external price difference and widen the PP/PG price ratio at low prices [23] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range forecast: The price range is 3800 - 4400, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 18.73%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility (3 - year) is 21.34% [22] - Hedging strategy: For inventory management, when inventory is high and worried about price decline, short PG2602 futures to lock in profits and sell call options (PG2601C4400) to collect premiums. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy PG2602 futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (PG2602P3900) to collect premiums [22] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Overseas supply remains tight, and prices are strong, providing relative support. The domestic fundamentals are still relatively strong, with port inventories declining again after the decrease in arrival volume, and short - term PDH demand remaining stable, with the operation rate rising to 76.32% this week [24] - Bearish information: PDH is in continuous loss, and there are still expectations of maintenance [25] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - On December 31, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting; On December 31, China's December PMI will be released [29] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: The PG02 contract fluctuated and rose this week. The net position of the main profitable seats decreased slightly; there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list; the net short position of the profitable seats increased slightly; the net long position of foreign capital increased slightly, and the net short position of retail investors increased slightly. Technically, PG02 was mostly volatile this week, oscillating between 4000 - 4200 on the daily chart [27] - Overseas market: FEI M1 closed at $522/ton (+$10), with a premium of $18.75/ton; CP M1 closed at $514/ton (+$10), with a CP premium of $50/ton; MB M1 closed at $342/ton (+$4). This week, the swaps rebounded in tandem with the rebound of crude oil, and the shipments from the US and the Middle East continued to be at a low level [33] 3.3.2 Basis - Monthly Spread Structure - Domestic: The monthly spread of LPG still showed a BACK structure, with the 1 - 2 monthly spread at 158 yuan/ton (+39) [31] - Overseas: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $21.54/ton (+$1.54); the CP M1 - M2 spread was $5.66/ton (-$0.87); the MB M1 - M2 spread was $1.3/ton (unchanged) [42] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Upstream profit: This week, the main refinery's gross margin was 664 yuan/ton (+50), and the Shandong local refinery's gross margin was 428 yuan/ton (-43). The profit fluctuated little this week [48] - Downstream profit: The PDH profit based on FEI cost was - 346 yuan/ton (-73), and the PDH profit based on CP cost was - 529 yuan/ton (-44). PDH has been in continuous loss. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit was - 81 yuan/ton (-1), the isomerization profit was - 252 (+13), and the alkylated oil profit was - 469 yuan/ton (+41). The recent profit fluctuations were small [50] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - This week, the overseas spot price strengthened again, while the domestic imported gas price remained stable, compressing the import profit again [53] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - US supply - demand: This week, the production decreased slightly, demand was weak recently, and exports were low due to fog and holidays. Overall, inventory was slowly decreasing. From January to November, the US exported a total of 62,703 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 3.09%, with 9,693 kt shipped to China, a year - on - year decrease of 40% [56][63] - Middle East supply: From January to November, the Middle East exported a total of 44,850 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.88%, with 19,238 kt shipped to India, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%, and 16,833 kt shipped to China, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In November, domestic demand in the Middle East was strong, and shipments were generally low. Weekly data showed that Middle Eastern shipments have remained low in recent weeks [66] - Indian supply - demand: From January to November, India's LPG demand totaled 30,101 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.26%, and LPG imports were 21,048 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak season in India, with demand and imports remaining high [71] - South Korean supply - demand: The seasonality of South Korea's LPG demand is not obvious, with most used in the chemical industry. From May to September, South Korea's LPG imports remained high. There was some re - export demand in May and June, and the propane cracking profit was better than that of naphtha from July to September, providing support at the cracking end. Currently, the propane cracking profit is still better than that of naphtha, and imports are expected to remain at a relatively high level. Some cracking maintenance has continued until December, and the cost - effectiveness of LPG cracking has decreased. South Korea's LPG imports in November increased slightly compared to October but were still at a low level, and the import volume has recently rebounded [82] - Japanese supply - demand: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and the proportion of combustion demand is large, so the seasonality of demand and imports is relatively obvious. It is expected that imports will increase as the weather gets colder. After restocking in August, imports decreased in September, and overall, imports in August and September were moderate. Imports increased again in October. Normally, the average monthly import volume from November to February of the following year is around 1,000 kt [90] 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - Domestic supply - demand balance: Supply: With high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level, but the overall external supply volume is not high; from the shipping data, the import volume is not expected to be high. Demand: Based on profit and seasonal performance, chemical demand is decreasing, and combustion demand is increasing. Overall, the chemical demand in the fourth quarter was better than expected. Inventory: Overall, inventory is decreasing, mainly at ports [94] - Domestic supply: The operating rate of main refineries was 75.11% (unchanged), the operating rate of independent refineries was 56.22% (+0.32%), the utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries was 52.32% (+0.35%), the domestic LPG external sales volume was 52.44 tons (+0.61), and the arrival volume was 31.3 tons (-36.4). In terms of inventory, the factory storage capacity utilization rate was 24.06% (+0.41%), and the port inventory was 233.73 tons (-27.34) [97] - Domestic demand: PDH demand: Juzhengyuan and Shandong Binhua restarted and increased production. This week, Shandong Chengtai and Yuhuang Shengrong continued their maintenance. The internal - external price difference continued to shrink. MTBE demand: The operating rate and export situation need attention. Alkylation oil demand: Hubei Yuchu restarted this week, and others continued as before. Combustion demand: Attention should be paid to the sales - production ratio in different regions [107][110][116]