行业周报：海南自贸港政策红利释放带动市场活跃，关注社区餐饮快速扩张-20251228

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the community dining sector in China, with the market size expected to reach RMB 2,137.6 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028 [4][16] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has seen significant policy benefits, leading to increased consumer and trade activity, with notable growth in duty-free shopping and foreign trade enterprises [12][13] - The "oil-based skincare" segment is experiencing expansion, with both international and domestic brands enhancing their product offerings, which is expected to drive industry growth [27][28] Summary by Sections Hainan Free Trade Port Tracking - The first week of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure saw duty-free shopping amounting to RMB 1.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 54.9% [12] - The number of new foreign trade registered enterprises in Hainan increased by 2.3 times year-on-year, with over 30,000 new registered customs declaration units for the year, up over 40% [12] - Passenger throughput at Meilan Airport increased by 11.8% year-on-year during the first week of closure [13] Community Dining - The community dining sector has grown rapidly, with the market size increasing from RMB 1,141.4 billion in 2018 to RMB 1,365.8 billion in 2023, a CAGR of 3.7% [14][19] - JD's "Seven Fresh Kitchen" has opened over 30 stores in Beijing, aiming to establish 10,000 stores in three years, focusing on a dual model of delivery and self-pickup [18][24] - The "锅圈" (Guoquan) has expanded its store size and product offerings, transitioning from a simple grocery model to a comprehensive community kitchen service [24] Oil-based Skincare - The "oil-based skincare" market is seeing increased competition from both international luxury brands and domestic brands, with a focus on high-quality ingredients and effective formulations [27][28] - Lin Qingxuan has maintained the top market share on platforms like Taobao and Douyin, with a significant increase in its market share on Douyin by 13.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [28][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and the introduction of new active ingredients to meet diverse consumer needs [28] Market Performance Overview - The Hong Kong retail sector outperformed the Hang Seng Index, while consumer services and media sectors lagged behind [34][35] - The report notes that the duty-free and dining sectors have shown strong performance, with specific companies like 多想云 (Duoxiangyun) and 中国中免 (China Duty Free Group) leading in stock performance [43][44]