Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-28 14:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly in the cyclical direction, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights the recent emphasis from authoritative media and high-level officials on the importance of domestic demand, which is crucial for the industry [7]. - Despite a recent pullback in the high-end liquor sector, the report anticipates a recovery in sales and pricing balance in the upcoming quarters, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, followed by stabilization in Q2 and a potential turning point in Q3 [7][8]. - The report suggests that high-quality liquor companies are currently in a strategic allocation phase, with recommendations for specific brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye [7][8]. - For the consumer goods sector, the report identifies systemic opportunities, with a focus on CPI as a core observation indicator, predicting gradual improvement in food CPI throughout the year [7][10]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.56% last week, with the liquor segment down by 0.20%, underperforming the broader market [6]. - The report notes that the top gainers included Anji Food (+29.65%) and Xichuan Food (+9%), while the biggest losers were Huanlejia (-16.35%) and Zhuangyuan Pasture (-13.19%) [6]. Liquor Sector - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1550 RMB, with a week-on-week increase of 5 RMB, while the box price is 1560 RMB, also up by 5 RMB. Wuliangye's price remains stable at approximately 780 RMB, and Guojiao 1573 has decreased by 10 RMB to around 820 RMB [8][33]. - The Moutai dealer conference emphasized a market-oriented transformation, focusing on consumer-centric strategies and adjusting product offerings to stabilize market dynamics [8]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report recommends focusing on the restaurant supply chain, particularly in condiments and frozen foods, with specific recommendations for companies like Anji Food, Qianhe Flavor, and Tianwei Food [10]. - The dairy sector is expected to see an improved supply-demand balance in 2026, with recommendations for Yili and New Dairy [10]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 26, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.02x, with a premium rate of 21%, while the liquor sector has a dynamic PE of 18.50x, with a premium rate of 12% [34].