八“仙”过海

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved an "eight consecutive days" rally, with a rise of 1.88%, while the CSI 300 increased by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 3.90% [1][17] - The market sentiment remains bullish despite the absence of significant positive news during the rally, indicating a strong expectation for the upcoming cross-year market [1][11] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has increased to 19,569 billion, showing a rise compared to the previous week [1][17] Historical Context - Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded "eight consecutive days" only 17 times since 2000, primarily during bull markets [2][34] - The median increase in the index following previous "eight consecutive days" has been 2.6% in the following week, 2.3% in the following month, and 6.3% over three months [2][35] - The current rally's increase of only 2.8% during the "eight consecutive days" is lower than the historical median, suggesting a higher probability of market consolidation rather than accelerated growth [2][35] Structural Analysis - The current market structure shows that small-cap indices such as the CSI 2000, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have reached new highs, indicating a trend where small caps outperform large caps [4][11] - Key sectors that have achieved new highs include non-ferrous metals, military industry, communications, insurance, machinery, and chemicals, reflecting a "new and old coexistence" structural feature [4][11] - The report anticipates a shift in 2026 from a "new surpassing old" narrative to a "new and old coexistence" theme, with a focus on traditional industries benefiting from global pricing resources and cyclical recovery [4][11] Investment Focus - For AI technology investments, the report emphasizes a focus on core sectors with strong fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach until significant breakthroughs in AI applications occur [5] - The traditional industries, particularly those involved in overseas expansion and global pricing resources, are expected to see profit growth in 2026, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, machinery, and electrical equipment [5] - The report highlights the recent surge in silver prices and the significant drop in the gold-silver ratio, indicating potential investment opportunities in precious metals [5]