朝闻国盛：市场有望节前确认方向

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that since 2000, there have been five rounds of PPI recovery, with A-shares generally trending upwards during these periods, particularly in the first phase when PPI shows a month-on-month bottom, leading to a valuation recovery in A-shares, especially in small and mid-cap growth stocks, TMT, and media sectors [4] - In the second phase, as PPI rises year-on-year from the bottom to positive territory, the market continues to rise with a more balanced style, benefiting growth, consumption, and cyclical sectors such as electronics, communications, and power equipment [4] - The report anticipates that in 2026, PPI will be in the second phase, suggesting investment opportunities in growth, consumption, and cyclical sectors [4] Group 2: Financial Engineering - The market is expected to confirm its direction before the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% over the week, indicating a potential upward trend in sectors like small-cap, electronics, and machinery [6] - The report notes that while some indices are confirming downtrends, half of the industries are still showing upward trends, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials and energy [6] - A500 Index is projected to have a 12.9% expected return over the next year, supported by strong earnings and valuation growth, making it a suitable asset for risk diversification [12] Group 3: Coal Industry - The coal price is expected to stabilize around 750 RMB/ton for thermal coal and 1550-1600 RMB/ton for coking coal in 2026, with a focus on domestic capacity exit and overseas demand driven by AI [28] - The report warns of potential supply shortages in coal for power plants due to the risk of coal mine shutdowns in Indonesia, which could impact the coal supply for Java Island [31] - Current market conditions show a complete inversion between spot and long-term coal prices, indicating a potential bottoming out, with expectations for policy intervention to stabilize prices [34] Group 4: Electronics Industry - The report emphasizes the promising outlook for high-speed optical chips, driven by AI demand and the expected growth of the global EML laser chip market from 3.71 billion RMB in 2024 to 7.41 billion RMB by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.23% [18] - The demand for silicon photonic modules is expected to rise significantly, driven by the need for higher transmission rates in data centers and networks, with major companies ramping up production to meet this demand [21] - Companies like Coherent and Lumentum are expanding their production capacities to meet the growing demand for optical components, with significant orders for high-speed products expected to drive revenue growth [23][24]