电解铝期货品种周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrolytic aluminum industry is a bullish and volatile trend, suggesting holding long positions in the medium term and waiting for price increases [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the electrolytic aluminum market is a bullish and volatile trend in the short - to - medium term. Macro - sentiment is the main driving factor. Supply constraints are expected due to technological upgrades in Xinjiang and power rationing during the dry season in Yunnan in January. Although demand in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors is growing, the off - season pressure remains, and the market is mainly driven by rigid demand replenishment [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Viewpoint - Bauxite Market: After the Guinean presidential election on December 28, 2025, the mining industry is expected to focus on "clearing inventory and optimizing structure". The cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to ports is between $20 - 45 per ton, and the CIF average price in 2026 is expected to range from $58 - 68 per ton [8] - Alumina Market: As of December 26, 2025, China's alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 94.4 million tons, with a utilization rate of about 85.14%. In 2026, new domestic alumina production capacity will be about 14.4 million tons per year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The market may experience a cycle of "shortage - re - surplus" in 2026 [8] - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In November 2025, China's domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.9165 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6393 million tons. The global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to disappear in 2026 [8] - Imports and Exports: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,400 yuan per ton. In November 2025, China exported 570,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The cumulative export from January to November was 5.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [8] - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 612,000 tons, up about 4% from last week and about 29% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 125,400 tons, up about 7% from last week and about 20% from last year. LME aluminum inventory is at a low level in recent years [9] - Profits: The average full - cost of the China alumina industry in the past month is about 2,780 yuan per ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan per ton. The theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum production is about 5,000 yuan per ton [9] - Market Expectations: The positive macro - sentiment dominates, but the fundamental pressure restricts the continuous rise of aluminum prices. It is expected that the spot aluminum price will rise slightly and then return to range - bound trading next week, with an average weekly price of about 21,850 yuan per ton [9] Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products have different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite SI2 - 3% from Guinea decreased by 4.35% week - on - week, and the price of alumina in Henan decreased by 2.36% week - on - week. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased by 0.99% week - on - week [10] Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of bauxite at ports decreased slightly, and the inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the LME aluminum inventory remained stable at a low level [11][14][15] Supply - Demand Situation - Downstream开工概况: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% this week. Affected by factors such as weak orders, environmental protection control, and high aluminum prices, the off - season characteristics are more obvious, and the operating rate may continue to decline in the short term [22] Futures - Spot Structure - The Shanghai aluminum futures show a positive market structure with higher prices for distant contracts. The output of electrolytic aluminum plants can be smoothly transferred to the middle and lower reaches [27] Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,810 yuan per ton, and the current spread has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34] Market Capital Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position of funds is at a high level since 2018, and overseas funds are still dominated by bulls, but the high floating - profit positions of bulls may lead to repeated high - level market conditions [36] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The main force has turned to a net short position this week. The main funds are still cautious about the recent price increase [39]