贵金属：贵金属日报2025-12-29-20251229

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is currently in an accelerating upward phase. However, from January next year to May when Powell officially steps down as the Fed Chairman, precious metals may face short - term significant corrections due to the Fed's "inaction," but this does not mean the end of the current upward cycle of gold and silver prices. The Trump administration has the motivation to implement broader fiscal policies under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new round of more aggressive interest - rate cuts after Powell's departure. The peak of gold and silver prices is expected to occur when the new Fed Chairman hints at the end of interest - rate cuts. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in gold and silver when the hourly technical pattern weakens, and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 16752 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Market Quotes and Influencing Factors - Market Quotes: Shanghai gold rose 0.17% to 1018.10 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 6.03% to 19204.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold was reported at 4562.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 79.68 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 98.04 [2]. - Influencing Factors on Gold: The expectation of the US's broader fiscal policy has further strengthened, driving the steady rise of gold prices. Facing the 2026 mid - term elections and low approval ratings, Trump is likely to adopt more aggressive expansionary fiscal policies, which will expand the US fiscal deficit and increase the long - term supply of US Treasuries. Gold's characteristic as a "substitute for credit currency" is more prominent compared to before Trump took office [2]. - Influencing Factors on Silver: The market is pricing in the Fed's aggressive easing next year due to the selection of the new Fed Chairman. Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, two members of the Trump camp, are likely to be nominated as candidates for the new Fed Chairman, and they support Trump's interest - rate cut policy. The expectation of the Fed's more aggressive interest - rate cuts in the second half of next year has driven international silver prices to reach new historical highs [3]. 2. Strategy Suggestions - It is recommended to take profit on long positions in gold and silver when the hourly technical pattern weakens, and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 16752 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Data Summary - Gold Data: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, and AuT + D all showed different degrees of changes. For example, the closing price of COMEX gold's active contract rose 1.26% to 4562.00 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume increased 19.47% to 17.91 million lots [7]. - Silver Data: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of COMEX silver, LBMA silver, SHFE silver, and AgT + D also changed. For instance, the closing price of COMEX silver's active contract rose 10.85% to 79.68 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume of AgT + D increased 106.00% to 1034.37 tons [7]. 4. Price and Market Structure Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including the relationship between the price of COMEX gold and the US dollar index, real interest rate, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai gold; the relationship between the price of COMEX silver and trading volume, open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX silver and Shanghai silver; and the total open interest of gold and silver ETFs, as well as the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and silver and their prices [9][12][17][22][23][27][29][31][39][42][46]. 5. Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - Gold Internal - External Price Difference: On December 25, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference of gold was - 10.01 yuan/gram (- 44.44 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 0.38 yuan/gram (- 1.70 dollars/ounce) [53]. - Silver Internal - External Price Difference: On December 26, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference of silver was 544.74 yuan/kilogram (2.42 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 604.90 yuan/kilogram (2.69 dollars/ounce) [53][61].