五矿期货能源化工日报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3] - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5] - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to build a bottom while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [9] - For rubber, a neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is suggested, with a fast - in - and - out approach. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15] - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low, with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [23] - For polypropylene, there is a supply surplus in the cost side. With high inventory pressure and weak supply - demand, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [25] - For PX, it is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term correction risks should be noted [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term over - expectation correction risks should be noted [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry has high overall load, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium term, valuation compression is expected without further production cuts [32] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.27% decline, at 441.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline and diesel inventories increased, while fuel oil and total refined oil inventories decreased [2] - Strategy Viewpoint: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3] Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 2161 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was 40 yuan [4] - Strategy Viewpoint: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5] Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in some areas increased. The main futures contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 30 yuan/ton [7] - Strategy Viewpoint: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. Buying on dips is recommended [9] Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices rose significantly. There are different views among bulls and bears. The start - up load of domestic tire enterprises showed different trends, and social inventory increased [11][12][13] - Strategy Viewpoint: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is suggested, with a fast - in - and - out approach. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15] PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 75 yuan to 4832 yuan. The overall start - up rate decreased slightly, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [15] - Strategy Viewpoint: The industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was unchanged. The spot and futures prices of styrene increased. Supply - side start - up rate increased, and port inventory increased. Demand - side start - up rate decreased [19] - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low, with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [20] Polyethylene - Market Information: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 75 yuan/ton to 6465 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate increased slightly, and inventory decreased. The downstream start - up rate decreased [22] - Strategy Viewpoint: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [23] Polypropylene - Market Information: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 26 yuan/ton to 6292 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, production and trader inventories decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream start - up rate decreased [24] - Strategy Viewpoint: There is a supply surplus in the cost side. With high inventory pressure and weak supply - demand, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [25] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - Market Information: The PX03 contract rose 198 yuan to 7556 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. PTA load decreased, and import volume increased [27] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term correction risks should be noted [28] PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 128 yuan to 5280 yuan. The PTA load decreased slightly, and some plants had changes in operation. Downstream load decreased, and inventory decreased [29] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term over - expectation correction risks should be noted [30] Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract rose 28 yuan to 3846 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. Downstream load decreased, and port inventory increased [31] - Strategy Viewpoint: The industry has high overall load, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium term, valuation compression is expected without further production cuts [32]