山金期货黑色板块日报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector: The market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly due to a significant drop in mill profit margins and the end of the consumption peak. Although coal and coke prices have rebounded recently, providing some cost support, winter storage is still some time away. With enhanced macro - confidence, steel futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [2]. - For the iron ore sector: Near the end of the year, the market is filled with strong wait - and - see sentiment. Domestic coal mines are reducing production, while Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. As downstream winter storage expectations increase, market sentiment has improved. The iron ore futures price has a relatively large basis for support, and the 05 contract is expected to form a phased bottom [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and demand: This week's data shows that the production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils has increased, while the total production of the five major steel products has decreased. Overall inventory continues to decline. The apparent demand for threaded rods has decreased, while that of hot - rolled coils has increased, but the overall apparent demand for the five major products has decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - Price data: The closing price of the threaded rod futures main contract is 3,118 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day and 0.03% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract is 3,283 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day and 0.43% from last week. Spot prices of both have generally declined [2]. - Operation suggestions: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trades [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Market situation: Near the end of the year, the domestic coal market has weak supply and demand. The import of Mongolian coal is high, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand. With the strengthening of winter storage expectations, market sentiment has improved [4]. - Price data: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 783 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.38% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 104.67 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.60% from the previous day and 0.98% from last week [5]. - Operation suggestions: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trades [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of balancing supply and demand and optimizing the structure in the raw materials industry such as steel and petrochemicals during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and will continue to regulate crude steel production [7]. - According to Mysteel, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week; the daily average pig iron output is 2.2658 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons from last week [7]. - According to Mysteel, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 158.5866 million tons, an increase of 3.4603 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume is 3.1506 million tons, an increase of 0.0161 million tons [7]. - According to Gangyin E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week is 7.0622 million tons, a decrease of 394,300 tons (- 5.29%) from last week; the total inventory of construction steel is 3.1163 million tons, a decrease of 277,000 tons (- 8.16%) from last week [7]. - According to Clarkson Research, from January to November this year, South Korea received 10.03 million compensated gross tons (CGT, 223 ships) of new ship orders, accounting for 22% of the global market. Its shipbuilding industry's annual market share is expected to rebound to over 20% [8].