Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on profits, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to buy on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after the oversold [5][7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase. There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions when the hourly technical pattern weakens and not to open new long or short positions [8][9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment. Some are expected to rise further, while others need to pay attention to the impact of inventory and other factors on prices [11][12][13][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillation range. Glass and soda ash markets are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron need to pay attention to market sentiment and cost factors [31][32][33][34]. - For energy chemicals, rubber prices are oscillating strongly with a neutral - to - long - term view. Oil prices are maintained with a low - buy and high - sell strategy. Methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level. Urea is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. Other chemicals also have their own supply - demand and price trends [47][50][51][52]. - For agricultural products, the short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound. Egg prices may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. Other agricultural products also have their own price trends based on supply - demand relationships [74][75][76][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - Market Information: The central bank aims to improve the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds investing in A - shares. Rules for commercial rocket companies to list on the STAR Market are refined. The first batch of L3 - level autonomous vehicles in China start large - scale road operation. International gold and silver prices reach new highs [2]. - Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Despite short - term uncertainty, the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts change. National industrial enterprise profit data is released, and a fiscal work meeting is held, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducts 930 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 368 billion yuan [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship and rebound opportunities [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rise. The expected expansion of US fiscal policy drives up the price of gold, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively next year, pushing up the price of silver [8][9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and not to open new positions [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Information: The price of Shanghai copper breaks through 100,000 yuan per ton. The weekly inventory of copper at the SHFE increases, and the spot discount expands [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of copper is expected to rise further, but attention should be paid to the suppression of inventory accumulation on the upward trend [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: The price of Shanghai aluminum rises. The inventory of aluminum ingots increases slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreases [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of aluminum is expected to rise further, supported by the rise of precious metals and copper prices [14]. Zinc - Market Information: The price of Shanghai zinc rises. The inventory of zinc ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [15][16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The fundamentals of zinc are weak, but there is a risk of supplementary price increases following the sector [17]. Lead - Market Information: The price of Shanghai lead rises. The inventory of lead ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, but the price is supported by the reduction of supply on the recycling side and low inventory [18]. Nickel - Market Information: The price of nickel rebounds slightly. The spot premium and the price of nickel ore and nickel pig iron change [19]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - Market Information: The price of Shanghai tin rises. The production of tin smelting enterprises and the demand of tin solder enterprises change [20][21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The price of Australian lithium concentrate also rises [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The change in the pricing method and the initiative in long - term contracts are beneficial to the restoration of the spot valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of alumina rises. The spot price, overseas price, and inventory change [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of ore is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to wait and see and not to chase long positions blindly [24][25]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The price of stainless steel changes. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory change [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of stainless steel may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuates. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreases [28]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil change. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices change [31]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. The demand is weak, and the winter storage intention is low [32]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The price of iron ore rises. The spot price, basis, and inventory change [33]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of iron ore decreases, the demand is stable, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to operate within an oscillation range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The prices of glass and soda ash change. The inventory, positions, and spot prices change [35][37]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The glass market is expected to remain weak, and the soda ash market has limited rebound strength [36][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - Market Information: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron change. The spot prices and basis change [38]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Attention should be paid to the risk of supplementary price increases in the black sector and the cost and supply factors of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon change. The spot prices, positions, and inventory change [42][44]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and the price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate [43][45]. Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - Market Information: The price of rubber oscillates strongly. The tire start - up rate, inventory, and spot price change [47][48][49]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of rubber is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to operate short - term and hold hedging positions [50]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The price of crude oil falls, and the prices of refined oil products rise. The inventory of Singapore ESG oil products changes [51]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [52]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot price and the main futures price of methanol change [53]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot price and the main futures price of urea change [55]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of urea decreases, and the demand increases. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [57]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - Market Information: The price of PVC rises. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [59]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The domestic supply of PVC is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of ethylene glycol rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [61]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to compress the valuation [62]. PTA - Market Information: The price of PTA rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [64]. - Strategy Viewpoint: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The price of p - xylene rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [66]. - Strategy Viewpoint: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The price of PE rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [68]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The price of PP rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [71]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply and demand of PP are weak, and attention should be paid to the change in the supply - surplus pattern at the cost end in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Category Hogs - Market Information: The price of hogs rises. The supply and demand in the market change [74]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - Market Information: The price of eggs is stable or rises. The supply and demand in the market change [76]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The egg price may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - month and pay attention to the upper pressure in the far - month [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The price of CBOT soybeans falls. The domestic soybean meal price, trading volume, and inventory change [79]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The import cost of soybean meal has a bottom support, and the price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil change. The import of Indian vegetable oil decreases. The price of domestic oils and fats rebounds [81]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe the high - frequency production and export data and operate short - term [82][83]. Sugar - Market Information: The price of sugar rises. The import volume of sugar and syrup changes. The production of sugar in Brazil and India changes [84][85]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. The domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [86]. Cotton - Market Information: The price of cotton rises. The spot price, import volume, and inventory change [87][88]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].
宏观金融类：文字早评2025/12/29星期一-20251229
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-29 01:12