黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The rise of gold prices last week was driven by monetary easing expectations and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [7][8]. - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward phase and is currently at the end of the trend. The rise of silver prices was driven by macro - easing, supply - demand tensions, and risk - aversion needs. It is also recommended to wait and see in the medium term [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend judgment logic: Last week's gold price increase was driven by monetary easing expectations and geopolitical risks. The Fed's interest - rate cut prospects lowered real interest rates, and geopolitical risks provided support. There was also demand resonance from central bank gold purchases and the record - high scale of domestic gold ETFs. Technically, the gold price broke through the previous high. Short - term risks include profit - taking pressure due to large annual gains and possible weakening of upward momentum if US economic data is strong or geopolitical situations ease [7]. - Mid - line strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: For the Shanghai gold contract 2602, it was recommended to be cautiously bullish, with an upper pressure level of 985 - 1000 yuan/gram and a lower support level of 935 - 950 yuan/gram. It was advised to buy on dips [10]. - This week's strategy suggestion: For the Shanghai gold contract 2604, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with an upper pressure level of 1011 - 1026 yuan/gram and a lower support level of 988 - 1000 yuan/gram. It is advised to buy on dips, paying attention to New Year's Day holiday risks [11]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data - Provided historical data on the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, as well as the holding volume of SPDR gold ETF, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward phase and is currently at the end of the trend [31]. - Trend judgment logic: Last week's silver price increase was driven by macro - easing, supply - demand tensions, and risk - aversion needs. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and a weakening US dollar provided support. Strong photovoltaic demand, a five - year supply gap, and a seven - year low in exchange inventory strengthened its commodity attributes. There was also significant linkage between domestic and foreign markets and strong investment demand. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm data on interest - rate cut expectations and the sustainability of inventory shortages. Risks include a more than 140% annual increase in silver prices, overbought RSI, and possible price re - evaluation if the Fed signals a slowdown in interest - rate cuts [31]. - Mid - line strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2602 was expected to operate strongly at a high level, with a lower support level of 1.45 - 1.5 million yuan/kilogram. It was advised to buy on dips [34]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2604 is expected to operate strongly at a high level, with a lower support level of 1.8 - 1.85 million yuan/kilogram. It is advised to buy on dips, paying attention to New Year's Day holiday risks [35]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data - Provided historical data on the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, the holding volume of SLV silver ETF, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]