原油：空单持有，酌情加空

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report recommends holding short positions in crude oil and adding short positions as appropriate [1] 2. Core View - The prices of major crude oil contracts have declined, with WTI 02 down $1.61/barrel (2.76%) to $56.74/barrel, Brent 02 down $1.60/barrel (2.57%) to $60.64/barrel, and SC2602 down 10.80 yuan/barrel (2.44%) to 432.60 yuan/barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows for different crude oil varieties and device types are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -$0.52/barrel to -$8.06/barrel. Key negative factors include refinery value differences, crude oil price differences, high freight and structural costs, and lack of competitiveness [2] 3.2 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Some crude oil varieties such as Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals show arbitrage opportunities, with arbitrage spaces ranging from +$0.3/barrel to +$2.46/barrel. However, Cabinda lacks competitiveness with a negative arbitrage space of -$2.66/barrel [4] 3.3 Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - Some varieties like Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces ranging from +$0.06/barrel to +$1.35/barrel. WTI MEH is close to full balance, and Azeri Light lacks competitiveness with a negative space of -$0.92/barrel [5] 3.4 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows for the listed crude oil varieties are deeply closed, with negative spaces ranging from -$23.41/barrel to -$26.3/barrel, indicating a lack of competitiveness [6] 3.5 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces of +$0.34/barrel, +$5.71/barrel, and +$0.89/barrel respectively. Basrah Heavy and Maya are close to the break - even point [7] 3.6 Key Market News - Tensions in the Middle East: Iranian President Pezeshkian warns the US and Israel not to launch new military attacks, and Israel may strike Iranian facilities again [8] - Russia extends its gasoline export ban until the end of February [8] - Iran seizes foreign oil tankers suspected of smuggling fuel to combat fuel smuggling [9] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak expects oil consumption to increase by over 1 million barrels per day annually and potentially reach 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [9] - In the Asian session, international spot gold hits a new record high, and spot silver breaks through $75/ounce for the first time [10]