LLDPE：基差偏弱，现货成交集中在中游

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE basis is weak, and spot transactions are concentrated in the middle - stream. The futures price has rebounded, and upstream quotes have increased. There is positive short - term feedback in the spot market, with inventory shifting to the middle - stream. The supply of Middle Eastern and US goods is expected to increase in Q1 2026. The raw material end is stable, the PE disk has rebounded from a low level, and downstream is not chasing up to replenish goods. There are supply and demand pressures in the medium - term due to high production capacity and weakening demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 is 6465, up 1.17% from the previous day. The trading volume is 684,637, and the open interest has decreased by 15,696. The 05 - contract basis is - 245 (compared to - 150 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 31 (compared to - 33 the previous day) [1] - Spot Price: The spot price in North China is 6220 yuan/ton (down from 6240 yuan/ton the previous day), 6300 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged), and 6320 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged) [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price fluctuates, and upstream quotes increase by 40 - 70. The rebound in the disk provides an opportunity for agents and futures - cash traders to build positions. The spot market has positive short - term feedback, inventory is transferred to the middle - stream, and the de - stocking of warehouse receipts has stopped. Middle Eastern and US offers have declined, and the internal - external price difference has slightly recovered. Shipments from the Middle East and the US are expected to arrive in large quantities in Q1 2026 [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil at the raw material end is stable, the monomer link is weakly stable, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE disk rebounds from a low level, and transactions are concentrated in the middle - stream. Downstream has not chased up to replenish goods. The demand for agricultural films has weakened recently, and the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of middle and downstream enterprises to hold goods has weakened. Upstream enterprises offer discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, and factory inventory has slightly decreased. The basis is weak. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, and the current maintenance plan in December is neutral. Some FD production is switched, and some Inner Mongolia plants have reduced their loads. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high production capacity and weakening demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [3]