PP：1月多套PDH计划检修，盘面企稳震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP is expected to remain weak due to limited overall fundamental support at the end of the year, with the cost - end PDH profit at a new low, but the upstream's weak willingness to cut production. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep PDH profit losses [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - LLDPE Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 was 6266, with a daily decline of 0.19%. The trading volume was 405723, and the open interest decreased by 3751 [1] - LLDPE Basis and Spread Data: The basis of the 05 contract was -146, compared with -158 the previous day. The 05 - 09 contract spread was -19, compared with -22 the previous day [1] - LLDPE Spot Price Data: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6050 yuan/ton, 6120 yuan/ton, and 6210 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, while the price in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in East China remained unchanged [1] Spot News - The futures market fluctuated. Near the end of the month, the on - site spot resources were limited, and some offers of holders rose slightly. Downstream buyers were highly cautious and had a low willingness to purchase the resources after the price increase. The market trading atmosphere was weaker than the previous day. The warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and new downstream orders were insufficient. Some PDH units plan to shut down in January, but the scale is not large yet. The end - of - year demand lacks flexibility, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited in the continuous decline, putting pressure on the basis. The prices in the PP US dollar market partially declined. Overseas suppliers were not enthusiastic about offering to China, and downstream buyers continued to make purchases based on rigid demand, with little improvement in trading [1] Market Condition Analysis - Cost Side: Crude oil is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support to the PP cost side. The chemical allocation in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic between aromatics and olefins is continuously strengthened [2] - Supply Side: There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - Demand Side: New downstream orders are weakening, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]