纯碱周报：“供需宽松”格局未改-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply-demand pattern of the soda ash market remains loose, and the inventory reduction this week is considered a phased repair. Without strong and continuous demand, prices are unlikely to rise in a trending manner. It is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the short term. Operationally, it is recommended to adopt an oscillatory approach, be bearish in the medium term, and pay attention to shorting opportunities on price rebounds. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, consider selling out-of-the-money call options to construct a covered strategy [8][36][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2605 ranged from 1157 to 1207 yuan/ton, showing a recovery. As of December 26, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract SA2605 rose 24 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.04%, closing at 1200 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - As of December 25, 2025, the domestic soda ash production this week was 711,800 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons from the previous week, a decline of 1.32%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.65%, down 1.09% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia-alkali capacity utilization rate was 83.32%, a decrease of 5.90%; the co-production capacity utilization rate was 73.85%, an increase of 0.79%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 85.80%, a decrease of 1.68% [7][9][11] 3.2.2 Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 61,900 tons from Monday, a decline of 4.13%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 735,500 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 703,000 tons, a decrease of 68,200 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 60,800 tons, a decline of 4.06%. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory decreased by 16,400 tons, a decline of 1.13% [7][14] 3.2.3 Shipment - As of December 25, the weekly soda ash shipment volume of Chinese enterprises was 77,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.85%; the overall soda ash shipment rate was 108.54%, a month-on-month increase of 9.23 percentage points [17] 3.2.4 Profit - As of December 25, 2025, the theoretical profit (double tons) of Chinese soda ash produced by the combined soda process was -20.50 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 50%. The theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash produced by the ammonia-alkali process was -57.40 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 13.94% [20][25] 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation 3.3.1 Float Glass Industry Output - As of December 25, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the 18th. The weekly output of national float glass from December 19 - 25, 2025 was 1.084 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.06% [27] 3.3.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a month-on-month increase of 65,000 heavy boxes, an increase of 0.11%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [30] 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the fundamentals of the soda ash market were mixed. The weekly data generally indicated marginal improvement, with a decline in production and capacity utilization on the supply side and a significant decline in the total inventory of manufacturers. However, the overall supply-demand pattern remained loose. The futures market sentiment was greatly affected by the macro and commodity market atmosphere, and the spot market trading was dull. Without strong and continuous demand, prices are expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the short term [36] 3.5 Operational Suggestions - Unilateral: Adopt an oscillatory approach, be bearish in the medium term. In the short term, conduct range operations and pay attention to shorting opportunities on price rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Consider selling out-of-the-money call options to construct a covered strategy [37]