华龙期货铁矿周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose by 0.77%. Recently, the global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month-on-month but remains at a high level compared to the same period in the past three years. Steel mills' iron ore inventories are lower than the same period last year, and the restocking demand of some steel mills provides short-term support for the spot price of iron ore. Overall, it is expected that iron ore will show a weak and volatile trend in the medium term [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided content, only the headings "Futures Price", "Spread Analysis (Basis in dry tons)", and "Position Analysis (Net Position Analysis of Futures Seats)" are given [6][7] 3.2 Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China will strengthen macro - prudential management of real estate finance and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes balancing supply and demand and optimizing the structure of raw material industries such as steel and petrochemicals, and continuing to regulate crude steel production. The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit range of coke and coking coal futures contracts to 10% starting from December 30, 2025, while keeping the trading margin level unchanged. The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen coal supply and promote the construction of strategic reserves of coal - to - oil and gas [12] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,054 tons, a decrease of 77 tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $101.49 per ton, an increase of $0.94 per ton from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 6,184.9 tons, a decrease of 499.3 tons from the previous month, and Brazil's was 3,096.3 tons, an increase of 170.8 tons from the first half of the month [17][19] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - Not elaborated in the provided content, only the headings "Daily Average Hot Metal Output of 247 Steel Mills", "Profit Margin of 247 Steel Mills", and "Shanghai Terminal Rebar and Wire Rod Purchases" are given [20][26] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61%. The steel mill profit margin was 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55%. The daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 15,858.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 346.03 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 315.06 tons, an increase of 1.61 tons. At 47 ports, the total inventory was 16,619.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 328.76 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons [29][30] 3.6 Future Outlook - Recently, the global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level compared to the same period in the past three years. Steel mills' iron ore inventories are lower than the same period last year, and the restocking demand of some steel mills provides short - term support for the spot price of iron ore. Overall, it is expected that iron ore will show a weak and volatile trend in the medium term [5][31] 3.7 Operation Strategies - Single - side: Be cautious and take short positions lightly when the price is high. If the price stands firm at the important resistance level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. Reduce positions before the holiday to avoid risks during the holiday. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][33]