宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月29日）-20251229

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing. Treasury bond futures have support but also face pressure, and are expected to remain in a volatile consolidation in the short term. [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the intraday view is "weak". The reference view is "volatile consolidation". The core logic is the low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term easing expectations. [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the reference view is "volatile consolidation". The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly up. With the moderately loose monetary policy, a more relaxed monetary environment next year, and increasing expectations of coordinated efforts between monetary and fiscal policies in Q1, treasury bond futures have strong support and the bond yields have decreased. However, the central bank is likely to be cautious about interest rate cuts, limiting the short - term rebound driven by rate - cut expectations. [5]