橡胶周报：宏观偏暖供需承压，或将维持区间震荡-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation in the short term due to a combination of factors including a warm macro - market sentiment, a weakening geopolitical support for rubber prices, good but weakening terminal consumption, and increasing seasonal inventory accumulation [8][9][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of natural rubber futures (RU2605) oscillated upward, with the price ranging from 15,130 to 15,890 yuan/ton. As of December 26, 2025, it closed at 15,780 yuan/ton, up 590 points or 3.88% for the week [6][15]. (2) Spot Price - As of December 26, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 18,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,130 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week [19][23]. (3) Basis and Spread - As of December 26, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai - Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the main contract futures price was - 480 yuan/ton, an expansion of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared to last week [27][30]. 2. Important Market Information - The US economic situation shows mixed signals, with strong Q3 GDP growth but a decline in consumer confidence. China's economic policies focus on market construction and industry regulation, and the industrial economy shows steady progress with some fluctuations in corporate profits. The automobile industry has growth in production and sales, especially in the new - energy vehicle segment, and the heavy - truck market has strong performance due to policy support [31][33][34]. 3. Supply - Side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries decreased by 1.95 tons or 1.82% compared to the previous month. The monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 77.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, and the cumulative output was 816.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China increased by 8.6% month - on - month [41][44][47]. 4. Demand - Side Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. As of November 30, 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings decreased year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month [56][60][63]. 5. Inventory - Side Situation - As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber futures inventory increased by 6,770 tons week - on - week. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased continuously, with an increasing inventory accumulation rate [84]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber production is in the peak season, with an expected increase in raw material supply in overseas main - producing areas. The domestic production is decreasing as the domestic areas stop tapping. The import volume of rubber in China increased year - on - year. The cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia weakens the geopolitical support for rubber prices. - Demand: The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased. The finished - product inventory is rising, and the all - steel tire price is under pressure. The automobile production and sales increased in November 2025, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The export volume of rubber tires increased slightly in the first 11 months of 2025. The demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken as the weather gets colder. - Inventory: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, social inventory, and the total inventory in Qingdao all increased last week [85][86]. 7.后市展望 - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures oscillated upward last week. In the future, the macro - market sentiment is warm, which supports the rubber price. However, on the fundamental side, the supply is expected to be loose, the geopolitical support for rubber prices weakens, the terminal consumption is good but may weaken, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. Therefore, the market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [87][88]. 8. Views and Operating Strategies - This week's view: The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. - Operating strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider range trading; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long 01 and short 05 positive spread opportunity; for options, wait and see [89][90].