国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251229

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series" dated December 29, 2025, covering various black - series commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are predicted to oscillate at low levels [2][6][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will experience wide - range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][11] - Coke has a fourth - round price cut expectation and will oscillate repeatedly [2][15] - Coking coal will be affected by year - end production cuts and oscillate repeatedly [2][16] - Logs will oscillate at low levels [2][20] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.58%. The open interest was 580,731 lots, an increase of 13,627 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores generally rose. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] - Macro and Industry News: From January to November, national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with different performances among different ownership enterprises [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Fundamental Data: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,118 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.42%. The closing price of HC2605 was 3,283 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.06%. Production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed mixed trends in the steel products [7][8] - Macro and Industry News: There were changes in steel production, inventory, and trade policies, such as the implementation of export license management for some steel products [8][9] - Trend Strength: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral view [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures and spot prices showed certain changes, with some differences in price movements between contracts and varieties. For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 was 5,672 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [11] - Macro and Industry News: There were price adjustments and production changes in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises, such as the price increase of 72 ferrosilicon in some regions [12][13] - Trend Strength: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral view [13] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,115.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 0.8%. The closing price of J2605 was 1,720 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 1.1%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [16] - Macro and Industry News: There were price index announcements and production restrictions in the coal industry, such as the production halt in coal mines in Qujing, Yunnan [16] - Trend Strength: Both coke and coking coal have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral view [19] Logs - Fundamental Data: Futures contract prices, trading volumes, and open interests showed fluctuations. Spot prices of various log types remained relatively stable [21] - Macro and Industry News: The 12 - month LPR remained unchanged [23] - Trend Strength: The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [23]