银河期货每日早盘观察-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment is positive, with various sectors showing different trends. The stock index futures still have the potential to break through at the end of the year, while the bond market is supported by the loose capital situation. In the agricultural products sector, there are different trends in various varieties, such as the overall shock in the protein meal market and the strong domestic sugar price. In the black metal sector, steel prices are in a range - bound shock, and the double - coke shows a wide - range shock. In the non - ferrous metal sector, the prices of gold, silver, and copper are strong. In the energy and chemical sector, the oil price is weak, and the asphalt is in a narrow - range shock [21][23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The market continued to rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising steadily after breaking through 3900 points. The short - term shock near 4000 points increased. Before the New Year's Day, there are only three trading days, and the negative factors are limited. The index has broken through the suppression of the 60 - day moving average, and the moving average system is arranged in a long position. The futures discount has continued to converge this week. The trading strategy is to go long on dips in a shock - upward trend, wait for the discount to widen for IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [21]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The loose market capital situation at the end of the year continues to support the bond market. The bond futures market closed up last week. However, the central bank's regular meeting did not release much incremental information, and the probability of a central bank interest rate cut in the short term is not high. The trading strategy is to try to go short on TS and TF contracts at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. In Brazil, the abundant rainfall is beneficial to the soybean crop, and the expected output is increased. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit is still significantly in the red, and the supply is uncertain. The trading strategy is to lay out a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [25][26]. - Sugar: The international sugar price fluctuated slightly downward, while the domestic sugar price remained strong. The Brazilian sugar is gradually entering the harvest stage, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar price is at a low level, with high processing costs and the upward trend of the external market providing support. The trading strategy is to expect the international sugar price to fluctuate slightly upward at the bottom in the short term and the domestic sugar price to maintain an upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [28][31][33]. - Oilseeds and Oils: The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the rapeseed oil is still affected by policies. The overall oil price has rebounded, but factors such as the postponement of the US biodiesel final plan and the high inventory of Malaysian palm oil may suppress the upward space. The trading strategy is to consider going long on palm oil after a stable stop - fall, but the upward height may be limited. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][36]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The US corn price is weak, and the domestic corn spot price is stable in the short term, with pressure in the later stage. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 and 07 corn contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39]. - Hogs: The hog price has shown a phased upward trend, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The trading strategy is to consider short - selling at high points, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [40][41][42]. - Peanuts: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates in a narrow range. The trading strategy is that the 05 peanut contract fluctuates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [43][44][46]. - Eggs: The egg price has declined slightly. In the short term, the near - month contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, the price is expected to strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The trading strategy is to go long on the far - month contract on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [47][48][50]. - Apples: The apple demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. This year's apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. The trading strategy is to expect short - term range - bound fluctuations, use the strategy of long 1 and short 10 for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][54][55]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The new cotton sales are good, and the cotton price fluctuates strongly. The Xinjiang cotton planting area is expected to be compressed in 2026, and the sales progress is fast. The trading strategy is that the US cotton is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a possible short - term correction risk. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. 3.3 Black Metals - Steel: The black metal sector showed a shock - strong trend last night. The five major steel products continued to reduce production, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is supported by costs, and the steel mills have restocking expectations, but the resumption of iron - making at the end of the month may suppress the upward space. The trading strategy is to maintain a shock - strong short - term trend, short the coil - coal ratio at high points for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [61][62]. - Double - Coke: The market is in a large - scale game, and there is no main trading logic. The coking coal auction in Shanxi has shown signs of stabilization, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. The trading strategy is to expect a wide - range shock and wait and see [65][66]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price fluctuated last Friday night. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the domestic terminal steel demand has declined. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate and wait and see for arbitrage and options [68][69]. - Ferroalloys: The commodity market sentiment is strong, and ferroalloys follow the short - term rebound. However, the upward space is limited by demand. The trading strategy is to follow the short - term rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [70][71][72]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: The prices of gold and silver rose sharply last Friday. The CME raised the margin of silver futures contracts, and the market sentiment is high. The trading strategy is to consider taking partial profits on long gold and silver orders before the New Year's Day holiday, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options to protect the remaining long positions [74][75][78]. - Platinum and Palladium: The platinum and palladium markets are in a wide - range shock period of capital game. The macro - environment is relatively loose, and the demand prospects are boosted by news. The trading strategy is to go long on dips based on the MA5 daily line, choose the opportunity to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [78][79][82]. - Copper: The copper price hit a new high last Friday night. The macro - environment provides liquidity, and the supply is tight. The trading strategy is to control positions in the short term and go long on dips in the long term. Pay attention to the opportunity of calendar spread arbitrage and wait and see for options [83][84][85]. - Alumina: The policy expectation promotes the price increase, which resonates with the expectation of basis convergence. The trading strategy is to be cautious about chasing the rise, wait and see for arbitrage and options [86][87]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The aluminum price is strong along with the sector. The global shortage pattern remains, and the domestic downstream demand has resilience. The trading strategy is to expect the price to be strong along with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [88][90][91]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the aluminum alloy price runs at a high level along with the aluminum price. The trading strategy is to expect high - level fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [92][93][95]. - Zinc: The zinc price is strong along with the non - ferrous sector, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect wide - range fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98][99]. - Lead: The lead price is strong due to low inventory and the influence of the macro and capital aspects. The fundamentals are weak in supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. The trading strategy is to take partial profits on long orders, wait and see for arbitrage and options [99][100][102]. - Nickel: Nickel is a weak variety in the strong sector and has a supplementary increase. The Indonesian policy is undetermined, and the demand lacks growth points. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of the upward trend, wait and see for arbitrage and options [103][105][106]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel price is strong along with the nickel price. The social inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported, but the upward space is limited. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price increase, wait and see for arbitrage and options [107][108]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon is in a short - term rebound, and the demand in the first quarter of 2026 is pessimistic. The trading strategy is to sell short on rallies in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [109]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon is expected to be strong in the long term, but pay attention to risk management in the short term. The trading strategy is to buy on dips, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell put options [110][112]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate price runs at a high level. The trading strategy is to control positions and be cautious in operation, wait and see for arbitrage and options [113][114][115]. 3.5 Shipping - Container Shipping: The spot freight rate has different views on the high point in January, and the short - term is expected to maintain a shock. The demand is expected to improve from December to January, and the supply has little change. The trading strategy is to take most profits on long EC2602 contracts at high points and hold a small position lightly. The far - month contracts may be suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. Wait and see for arbitrage [116][117]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The cease - fire agreement is advancing, and the oil price is running weakly. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The trading strategy is to expect a weak shock, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil price calendar spread is weak. Wait and see for options [119][120]. - Asphalt: The cost support is limited, and the asphalt price fluctuates in a narrow range. The trading strategy is to expect a shock, and the BU2602 contract refers to the range of 2900 - 3050. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [121][123]. - Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be in a weak shock before the end of January. The trading strategy is to be bearish, the low - sulfur cracking spread and the high - sulfur cracking spread are weak, and wait and see for options [125][126]. - Natural Gas: The LNG is in a low - level shock, and the HH is rebounding. The trading strategy is to continue to hold long HH2602 contracts, wait and see for arbitrage and options [127][128]. - LPG: The LPG spot price is weakening, and the futures are consolidating. The trading strategy is to go short on the far - month contracts on rallies, use the 03 - 04 reverse spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130][131]. - PX&PTA: The PX and PTA prices have fallen from high levels due to polyester filament production cuts and cost weakening. The trading strategy is to expect high - level fluctuations, use the PX&PTA 3 and 5 contracts for calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for options [131][132][134]. - BZ&EB: The pure - benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. The trading strategy is to expect a shock - strong trend, go short on pure benzene and long on styrene for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [134][137][138]. - Ethylene Glycol: Some devices boost market buying sentiment due to production cuts or shutdowns. The trading strategy is to expect short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - term weak shocks. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [139][140]. - Short - Fiber: The raw material price is strong, and the processing fee is under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate strongly, wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][142]. - Bottle - Chip: The bottle - chip price fluctuates with the cost side, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate strongly, wait and see for arbitrage and options [143][144][145]. - Propylene: The propylene supply pressure increases. The trading strategy is to expect wide - range fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell straddle options [146][147]. - Plastic PP: The PP warehouse receipts have returned to the level in mid - December. The trading strategy is to try to go long on the L 2605 contract in a small amount, set a stop - loss at 6320 points; wait and see for the PP 2605 contract. Try to go long on the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread in a small amount and set a stop - loss at +118 points. Sell the PP2605 - put - 6100 contract at an opportunity and set a stop - loss at 137.0 points [148][149][150]. - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda price fluctuates. The trading strategy is to expect a shock, wait and see for arbitrage and options [151][153][154]. - PVC: The PVC rebound is weak. The trading strategy is to expect a continuous rebound, wait and see for arbitrage and options [155][156][157]. - Soda Ash: The soda - ash price is expected to fluctuate weakly this week. The trading strategy is to expect a weak price this week, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options at high points on the far - month contracts [157][158][159]. - Glass: The glass futures price fluctuates. The trading strategy is to expect the price to continue to decline this week, wait and see for arbitrage and options [160][161]. - Methanol: The methanol continues to fluctuate. The trading strategy is to go long on the 05 contract at low levels without chasing the rise, pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [162][163]. - Urea: The urea shows signs of fatigue. The trading strategy is to expect a short - term correction, pay attention to the phosphate fertilizer control policy, wait and see for arbitrage and options [164][165]. - Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: The tires are accumulating inventory. The trading strategy is to go short in the short term without chasing the short, wait and see for arbitrage and options [166][167][168]. - Butadiene Rubber: The tires are accumulating inventory. The trading strategy is to try to go long on the BR 02 contract at an opportunity and set a stop - loss at 11450 points; hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread (2 lots vs 1 lot) and set a stop - loss at - 1240 points. Wait and see for options [171][172][173].