宏观预期和供给担忧共振，做多注意节奏：铜年度报告

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is positive for copper as the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals, domestic policy expectations are rising, and major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Fundamentally, global copper mine supply is restricted, and the growth rate of refined copper production is expected to slow down. Although the domestic demand growth rate may slow down, there will still be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market in 2026. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to continue an upward trend, and a long - position approach is recommended [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - The US inflation is slowing down, the labor market is weakening, and the rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals. In November, the US CPI slowed to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI slowed to 2.6% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and launched a short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion per month [7][8] - In China, fixed - asset investment is slowing down, and policy expectations are rising. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing investment was 1.9%, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real estate market, and the National Fiscal Work Conference stated that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue in 2026 [10][11] - Major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Germany will increase its federal debt issuance by about 20% in 2026, Japan will launch its largest - scale initial budget, and the US will have additional fiscal expenditures of about $480 billion in 2026. The PPI shows an upward trend, and attention should be paid to the start of the replenishment cycle [12][14] 3.2 Supply - The growth rate of global copper mine production is expected to be limited. In 2025, the growth rate of global copper mine production was adjusted down to 1.4% due to production cuts in some mines, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.3% due to new and expanded production capacities in some countries [19][20] - In China, the supply of copper concentrates is in short supply, imports are increasing year - on - year, and port inventories are relatively low. From January to November 2025, copper ore and concentrate imports increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and as of mid - December 2025, port copper concentrate inventories decreased compared with the same period last year [22][23] - By - products improve the loss situation of smelters, and copper concentrate supply is tight, putting pressure on processing fees. In 2025, the TC of imported copper concentrates was in the negative range, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at 0 [25][26] - The growth rate of global refined copper production is expected to slow down in 2026. The growth rate is expected to slow down to 0.9% in 2026 due to limited copper concentrate supply. China's CSPT will cut the capacity load of mine - copper by more than 10% in 2026, affecting about 1 million tons of global refined copper supply [27][30] - The refined copper market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", with significant import inversion and a decline in net imports. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [32][33] 3.3 Demand - Driven by supply - capacity expansion and demand increase, China's copper product output increased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper products increased by 8.8% year - on - year [36][37] - The output of refined copper rods increased. New capacity, demand growth, and substitution effects contributed to the increase in output in 2025. The output of recycled copper rods decreased, driving some demand to refined copper rods [38][39] - The output of copper strips slightly decreased, while the output of copper foils increased significantly. The demand for copper strips is expected to be differentiated, and the demand for copper foils is driven by energy - storage and new - energy vehicle consumption [40][41] - The output of copper tubes was affected by air - conditioner production scheduling, with a significant year - on - year decline in the fourth quarter. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper tubes decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [43][44] - Real - estate demand dragged down the performance of copper rods. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper rods decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [46][47] - The demand for power - grid construction increased significantly, while the growth rate of power - source investment slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative power - grid investment increased by 7.17% year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [48][50] - The growth of the global photovoltaic market is expected to slow down in 2026. In 2025, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China increased significantly, but in 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to policy adjustments, grid - absorption pressure, etc. [51][53] - The global wind - power industry is expected to remain prosperous in 2026. In 2025, the new installed capacity of wind - power in China increased significantly, and from 2026 - 2028, the average annual growth rate of onshore and offshore wind - power is expected to be high [54][55] - The domestic real - estate market is expected to be stabilized. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, and in 2025, the decline in real - estate indicators narrowed [56][58] - The growth rate of home - appliance consumption is expected to slow down in 2026. Although there is still policy support in 2026, the growth rate will slow down both domestically and overseas [60][61] - The production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow significantly in 2025. In 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to the change in vehicle - purchase tax policy [63][68] 3.4 Inventory - Global copper inventory shows obvious regional differentiation. High prices will suppress demand in the short term, leading to an increase in social inventory. As of mid - December 2025, domestic electrolytic copper and bonded - area electrolytic copper inventories increased compared with the same period last year [71][72] - There is a concern about a short squeeze in the LME copper market. In 2026, there will be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market. The growth rate of global refined copper production will slow down to 0.9% in 2026, and the demand growth rate will slow down to 2.1%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 150,000 tons [73][74]