2025年12月29日：期货市场交易指引-20251229

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - oscillatory [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - oscillatory and slightly bullish [1][5][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - hold long positions cautiously, hold light positions during holidays; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading; Lithium carbonate - range oscillation [1][10][16] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - range trading; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - weakly oscillatory [1][17][24] - Cotton Spinning Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillatory and slightly bullish; Apple - oscillatory; Jujube - oscillatory [1][26][28] - Agricultural and Livestock: Live pigs - short - term sell on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - 02 contract for breeding enterprises can wait to hedge on rallies; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, grain - holding entities hedge on rallies; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually, cautious on chasing highs [1][29][36] Core Views - The market is in a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. For example, macro policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors all play important roles in determining the price trends of different commodities. Some sectors are expected to have short - term trading opportunities, while others require long - term observation due to uncertainties [5][7][10] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Index Futures: Medium - to long - term bullish, but may oscillate in the short - term due to factors like policy changes, industrial profit decline, and exchange - rate concerns [5] - Treasury Bonds: Expected to oscillate as previous driving factors fade, and there is a lack of significant positive drivers for a new trend [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The market is in a game between clear bearish realities and weak marginal support. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - Rebar: With a neutral static valuation and stable expectations, short - term range trading is advised [7] - Glass: Although the long - term supply - demand situation is deteriorating, there may be short - term trading opportunities around the New Year. It is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Reached a record high recently, but there is a risk of short - term correction. Long - term bullish, but hold positions cautiously and lightly during holidays [10] - Aluminum: The fundamentals are weak, but due to macro factors, it has rebounded. Strengthen observation [12] - Nickel: Expected to be in an oversupply situation in the long - term. Observe or short on rallies [14] - Tin: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. Pay attention to supply and demand changes [14] - Silver and Gold: Driven by factors such as GDP growth and Fed policies, they are expected to oscillate. Hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold [15][16] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply and demand are in a state of balance. It is expected to oscillate in a range [16] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With weak fundamentals, low valuation, and concerns about export sustainability, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17] - Caustic Soda: Under the pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", it is recommended to observe temporarily [19] - Styrene: Short - term range oscillation, with the need to pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the long - term [19] - Rubber: Due to the divergence between cost support and weak demand, it is expected to oscillate in a range [21] - Urea: Supply and demand are both decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [22] - Methanol: With supply recovery and weak traditional demand, it is expected to be weakly oscillatory [24] - Polyolefins: In a situation of strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and PP is expected to oscillate in a range [24] - Soda Ash: With supply surplus as the main pressure, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Affected by global supply - demand adjustments and policy expectations, they are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish [26] - Apple and Jujube: The market is relatively stable, and they are expected to oscillate [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: The price is oscillating at the bottom. Short - term sell on rallies for near - month contracts, and cautiously bullish for far - month contracts [29][30] - Eggs: Short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract [31][33] - Corn: Short - term sell pressure needs to be digested, and long - term demand will gradually recover. Hedge on rallies in the short - term [34][35] - Soybean Meal: Trade in a range, bullish on dips for near - month contracts and bearish for far - month contracts [35] - Oils: Short - term stop - falling and rebound, close long positions gradually [36][43]