市场情绪高涨，铜价延续上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices continued to rise. The main reasons were that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the US was better than expected, the next Fed chairperson might be announced soon, Trump stated that the new chair must be a dovish supporter of interest - rate cuts, and Powell might resign as a governor ahead of schedule after his term ends in May next year. The weakening US dollar index boosted the metal market. On the other hand, the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF for the 10th consecutive month to keep market liquidity abundant, and the property market policy will be further relaxed next year. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate supply remained tight, non - US supplies were low, domestic social inventories declined to a low level, spot consumption was suppressed, domestic trade spot discounts widened, and the C - structure of the near - month contract narrowed [2][7]. - Overall, the strong US economic growth strengthened the market's confidence in the increasing demand for metals. The Trump administration will announce the new Fed chairperson soon, which may lay the foundation for a continued loose policy next year. The continuous weakening of the US dollar provides strong support for copper prices. Fundamentally, the overseas concentrate shortage remains, non - US inventories continue to decline, and new trends are replacing old drivers to provide consumption growth. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - Price Changes: LME copper rose from $11,870.50 to $12,133.00 per ton, a 2.21% increase; COMEX copper rose from 548.35 cents to 585.15 cents per pound, a 6.71% increase; SHFE copper fell from 94,080 yuan to 93,180 yuan per ton, a 0.96% decrease; international copper rose from 84,900 yuan to 91,350 yuan per ton, a 7.60% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.93 to 7.68. The LME spot premium increased from $4.73 to $19.69 per ton, a 316.28% increase, and the Shanghai spot discount increased from - 195 yuan to - 340 yuan per ton [3]. - Inventory Changes: As of December 26, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 851,252 tons, a 4.21% increase. LME copper inventory decreased by 3,375 tons (- 2.10%), COMEX inventory increased by 20,738 short tons (4.49%), SHFE inventory increased by 15,898 tons (16.60%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 1,100 tons (1.12%) [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price - Rising Reasons: The main reasons for the rise in copper prices last week were the better - than - expected US GDP growth in the third quarter, the possible announcement of the new Fed chairperson, the weakening US dollar index, the central bank's continuous increase in MLF volume, and the expected relaxation of the property market policy. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate supply was tight, non - US supplies were low, domestic social inventories declined, spot consumption was suppressed, and the C - structure of the near - month contract narrowed [2][7]. - Macro - aspects: The stability of the FOMC voting committee makes it possible for Powell to retire in 2026. Trump hopes the new Fed chair will support interest - rate cuts. The Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates next year. The US third - quarter GDP growth was better than expected, but government intervention may break the central bank's independence. In China, the central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR rates in December. In 2026, the moderately loose monetary policy may have two main focuses: total - volume policy (possible interest - rate cuts of 0.2 - 0.3 percentage points and reserve - requirement ratio cuts of 1 percentage point) and structural policy (increasing the quota of structural monetary policy tools and lowering the operating interest rate) [8]. - Supply - and - Demand Aspects: Overseas major mines' production increase next year is expected to be limited, with the global concentrate supply growth rate less than 1.5%. The long - term TC benchmark price for 2026 is at a record low of $0 per ton, indicating a tight global copper concentrate supply. Overseas deliverable supplies are flowing into North America, and non - US supply is tight. In terms of demand, traditional industries' demand is cooling, while emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles, AI data centers, and robots provide new consumption growth. The spot discount has widened, and domestic inventories have declined [9]. Industry News - M&A News: Gold and copper miner SolGold agreed to be acquired by Jiangxi Copper for £867 million ($1.17 billion). The deal gives Jiangxi Copper control of SolGold's Cascabel project in Ecuador, which has one of South America's largest undeveloped copper - gold deposits [10]. - Labor Dispute News: Workers at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile are ready to strike. If the new labor - contract mediation fails, the strike may start on December 29. The strike may cause the company to lose over $100 million in monthly revenue, and the mine's 2025 cathode - copper production plan is 29,000 - 32,000 tons [11]. - Policy News: The National Development and Reform Commission released an article on promoting the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries. For resource - constrained industries such as copper smelting, it is necessary to strengthen management, optimize the layout, prevent blind investment, encourage mergers and acquisitions, support technological research, and improve the recycling system [12].