供需边际转好，工业硅震荡向上

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated upwards. The main reasons are that the production cut of polysilicon next year is almost certain, the supply - demand structure of the upstream and mid - stream silicon material industry continues to improve, and the sentiment in the industrial product market is high. The supply side is marginally shrinking, and the demand side shows different trends in each segment. The social inventory of industrial silicon dropped to 553,000 tons, and the spot market generally rose due to the rebound in futures prices [2][5][9]. - Overall, the establishment of the new polysilicon platform promotes the continuous improvement of the supply - demand structure in the silicon material market. The upward shift of the center of the polysilicon futures price boosts the market confidence of the photovoltaic industry. It is expected that China's photovoltaic anti - involution will enter a critical stage next year. Technically, the main contract continues to rebound after getting supported at the 8,600 level, and it is expected that the industrial silicon futures price will continue to fluctuate upwards [2][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From December 12th to December 19th, the industrial silicon main contract rose from 8,390 yuan/ton to 8,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton or 3.58%. The prices of various spot products remained unchanged, and the industrial silicon social inventory decreased from 561,000 tons to 553,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 1.43% [3]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Supply: The operating rate in Xinjiang remains around 90%. The output in the southwest region is low in the off - season, and the overall increase in Inner Mongolia and Gansu is limited, resulting in a marginal contraction of the supply side [2][5][9]. - Demand: Polysilicon supply is in a convergent state, with significant production cuts in some southwestern regions, and the output is expected to drop to 110,000 tons in December. Silicon wafer enterprises' production cuts have effectively relieved inventory pressure, and the overall market shipment volume is limited. The capacity release of battery cell enterprises has not shown significant fluctuations. Second and third - tier enterprises control the shipment rhythm by locking in positions and raising prices. The rising silver price significantly pushes up production costs and is expected to drag down the production scheduling plan. At the component end, the demand for components is weak near the end of the year, and enterprises mostly produce according to sales to control inventory. The mainstream TOPCON182 transaction price is maintained at 0.66 - 0.72 yuan/watt [2][5][7]. - Macro: The central bank kept the one - year LPR rate at 3% and the five - year LPR rate at 3.5% in December. In 2026, the moderately loose monetary policy may have two main focuses: quantitative policies with possible policy - based interest rate cuts of 0.2 - 0.3 percentage points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of 1 percentage point; and structural policies with an overall increase in the quota of structural monetary policy tools and a moderate reduction in operating interest rates [6]. - Inventory: As of December 26th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon dropped to 553,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. The exchange registered warehouse receipt volume continued to increase, reaching 9,427 lots (equivalent to 47,000 tons) at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. The 5 - series products meeting the new delivery standards have become the main delivery models [8]. Industry News - As of the end of November, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the installed capacity of wind power was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. From January to November, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in China were 2,858 hours, 289 hours lower than the same period last year [10]. - On December 26th, the State Administration for Market Regulation conducted compliance guidance on price competition order in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui. It pointed out the problems and risks of price violations in the photovoltaic industry and emphasized the importance of rectifying "involution - style" competition. It will take measures to maintain a fair market competition order [11]. - On December 14th, the "Second Phase of the Practical Training Course on Risk Management for Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Enterprises" jointly organized by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Capital Market Academy successfully concluded. The exchange will continue to help enterprises improve their risk - resistance ability and promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry [12]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, main producing area weekly output, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and various spot prices [14][15][18].