烧碱：短期反弹高度有限，关注1月交割压力

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of caustic soda is limited, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. Although caustic soda rebounds following alumina, the rebound space may be limited if manufacturers do not cut production. The 01 - contract caustic soda may have a large number of warehouse receipts [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On December 26, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2,268, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 710, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2,219, and the basis was - 49 [1] Spot News - On December 26, taking Shandong as the benchmark, the overall performance of the Shandong market was average, some enterprises had poor sales, and prices continued to fall [1] Market Condition Analysis - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission's Industry Development Department proposed to strengthen management and optimize the layout of resource - constrained industries such as alumina and copper smelting. This news drove the sharp rebound of alumina, and caustic soda, as one of the raw materials of alumina, followed the rebound. - From a fundamental perspective, caustic soda still has a pattern of high production and high inventory. On the demand side, the oversupply situation of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and exports are under pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. With high production, there is great supply pressure, and enterprises face high - inventory pressure. Although caustic soda inventory decreased this week, there is still pressure to reduce inventory through price cuts before the Spring Festival [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]