供需边际改善，棕榈油止跌反弹

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 181 to close at 4,087 ringgit/ton, a 4.63% increase; the palm oil 05 contract rose 276 to close at 8,568 yuan/ton, a 3.33% increase; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 124 to close at 7,836 yuan/ton, a 1.61% increase; the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 302 to close at 9,046 yuan/ton, a 3.45% increase; the CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.84 to close at 49.2 cents/pound, a 1.74% increase; and the ICE canola active contract rose 17.9 to close at 612.4 Canadian dollars/ton, a 3.01% increase [4][7]. - As the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil improves marginally, the palm oil futures price continues to rebound. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the export demand has improved significantly. With the expected support of stocking demand before holidays, the pessimistic sentiment of a large - scale inventory build - up at the end of December has eased, and the sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up. The news about Indonesian biodiesel is within expectations, with limited short - term actual impact. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm next year. Rapeseed oil has rebounded from an oversold level, approaching the upper pressure range. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. After the arrival of Australian canola, the pressing process is expected to start. In addition, the global supply is in a loose pattern, which suppresses the upside space [4][8]. - Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the announcement of the Fed Chairman candidate. Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated and closed down, and the oil price continued to fluctuate at a low level. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally, with production decreasing and export demand improving significantly, leading to the continuous rebound of palm oil last week. In addition, there is expected support for stocking demand during holidays such as the Spring Festival, which may relieve the inventory pressure at the origin. The Indonesian government has reiterated the biodiesel policy, which is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year. Attention should be paid to the progress of the policy. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate in the short term [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various contracts on December 26 and December 19, including CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased. From December 1 - 25, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit area decreased by 8.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month. MPOA data shows that the palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% [8]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased. According to different shipping survey agencies, the export volume from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% - 41.25% compared with the same period last month [8][9]. - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year. The 2026 biodiesel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, basically the same as in 2025. The government is currently testing the B50 standard, and the test cycle may last up to eight months [9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.1265 million tons, an increase of 0.0079 million tons from the previous week and 0.2164 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, a decrease of 0.0139 million tons from the previous week; the palm oil inventory was 0.7 million tons, an increase of 0.0473 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.303 million tons, a decrease of 0.0255 million tons from the previous week [10]. Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOC) expects that in 2026, the country's palm oil export volume will increase to 16.2 million tons, and the production will moderately increase to 19.7 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the inventory will gradually return to normal. In November, due to weak demand in sub - Saharan Africa and the EU, the production and export volume decreased, and the inventory reached a high level since March 2019 [11]. - The Indonesian Meteorological Agency predicts that the rainy season will return to normal in 2026, and the La Nina weather pattern is expected to weaken and end by the end of the first quarter, which can optimize the harvest efficiency and logistics of palm plantations [12][13]. - The Indonesian government may fine palm oil enterprises and miners operating illegally in forest areas 8.5 billion US dollars in 2026, which may disrupt production and bring upward pressure on global prices [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides various charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [15][28][40].