宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-29-20251229

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Due to increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and a significant correction in domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures' rebound was hindered, and it re - entered a correction. Although port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they remain at high levels. Downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and olefin disk profits are weakening. With the emergence of long - short divergence, last Friday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and stable trend with a slight increase in prices. It is expected that on Monday, domestic methanol futures may maintain this volatile and stable trend [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle and Viewpoint Summary - For the methanol 2605 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is strong. The reference view is a strong run, and the core logic is the emergence of long - short divergence leading to a volatile and strong trend [1] 3.2 Price and Market Logic Summary - The calculation of the price increase or decrease range is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night sessions and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night sessions as the starting price, and the day - session closing price as the ending price [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is considered slightly weak, an increase between 0 - 1% is considered slightly strong, and an increase greater than 1% is considered strong. The slightly strong/weak concept only applies to the intraday view [3][4] - The intraday view of methanol is strong, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is a strong run. The core logic involves supply pressure, coal price decline, high inventory, weak downstream demand, and the emergence of long - short divergence [5]