宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-29-20251229

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and weak trend. The short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Situation - For the crude oil 2602 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the direct and strong driving force for the oil price rebound. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, with about 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil seized and about 600,000 barrels per day of exports in November. The number of tankers going to Venezuela has decreased, raising concerns about a global supply gap and increasing the risk premium of oil prices. Additionally, the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine makes geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market. After the short - term positive factors are digested, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and weak trend on the night of last Friday, and are expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5].