宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年12月29日）-20251229

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both short - term and medium - term, the views on both coking coal and coke are "oscillation". The intraday views are "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. - The coking coal market has a neutral and relatively loose supply - demand pattern, but post - New Year downstream winter storage and resumption expectations provide some support, and the continuous decline of thermal coal may trigger new supply adjustment measures [5]. - The coke market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, but the demand - side expectations have improved, and the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, with the futures main contract remaining in low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Production: As of the week ending December 26, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 740,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons and 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year [5]. - Import: As of December 20, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 26,498 vehicles, a 23.0% increase from the high base in November, which suppresses domestic coal prices [5]. - Supply - demand and Inventory: Overall supply is stable, demand remains low, the supply - demand pattern is neutral and relatively loose, and coking coal inventories in all industrial chain links have increased [5]. Coke (J) - Production: As of the week ending December 26, the combined daily output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1,094,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons; the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,265,800 tons [6]. - Supply - demand Situation: Both supply and demand of coke have stabilized at a low level, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term fundamentals are still weak, but demand - side expectations have improved [6].