对二甲苯：高位震荡市，PTA：高位震荡市，MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market [1][6] - PTA: High-level volatile market [1][7] - MEG: Limited upside space, medium-term pressure, price range volatile market [1][8] Core Views - PX is expected to maintain a high-level volatile market due to increased supply and decreased demand, but the tight balance pattern cannot be falsified for now [6] - PTA is in a high-level volatile market with supply reduction and demand increase, leading to continuous inventory depletion and positive impacts on monthly spreads and basis [7] - MEG is in a price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the supply is expected to shrink, and the inventory accumulation expectation has marginally improved [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - An 700,000-ton PX unit in the Northeast is currently restarting, and its capacity will expand to 1 million tons/year after restart [2] - A 3.6-million-ton PTA unit in East China is currently increasing its load [2] - A 550,000-ton/year MEG unit in Saudi Arabia has returned to normal operation, and another 450,000-ton/year MEG unit will undergo planned maintenance in Q1. Two 700,000-ton/year MEG units are in different states of parking and restart [2][3] - A 200,000-ton polyester unit in Wujiang and a 300,000-ton polyester bottle chip unit in South China have restarted, while a 200,000-ton direct-spun polyester staple fiber factory in Anhui plans to stop for maintenance on January 28 and restart in early March, and a 1.2-million-ton polyester bottle chip factory in Jiangyin plans to stop for maintenance in mid-January and restart in March [5] Price Quotes - Futures: PX, PTA, PF prices rose, SC price fell, and MEG price slightly increased. Some of their monthly spreads also changed [2] - Spot: PX, PTA, MEG, and Dated Brent prices increased, and the prices of other spots also changed to varying degrees [2] - Spot Processing Fees: PX-naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, and short fiber processing fee increased, while bottle chip processing fee decreased, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil price spread slightly increased [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [5] Views and Suggestions - PX: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is marginally loosening, and demand is decreasing, but the tight balance pattern persists [6] - PTA: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, and inventory is continuously depleted [7] - MEG: Supply is expected to shrink, price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the situation has marginally improved [8]